SuperNova Malta Preview – First Round Matchups
This was supposed to be a boring tournament. Liquid was going to come in and clean up, taking home the 80 grand without much trouble. Unfortunately for them, they had a severe underperformance at the ECS Finals, which throws the whole tournament into question. Now it seems as though the prize is up for grabs, and there are plenty of hungry tier two teams who want to take it.
Teams
Liquid (-118)
A week ago today Liquid would have been clear favorites, without a doubt in my mind. And if the ECS Finals had just been a flukey loss to an overperforming North, I would have all the confidence in the world that they would bounce back. Unfortunately, their loss at the ECS Finals has a lot to do with Twistzzz’s underperformance, which seemingly has a lot to do with health problems. That’s a big problem for Liquid, as those kinds of issues don’t usually fix themselves in under a week. It still wouldn’t be impossible for them to take the tournament, especially if NAF plays particularly well.
BIG (+550)
The (mostly) Germans are looking for redemption after a 0-2 loss to Mousesports at IEM Chicago. Their only notable wins this month are a 2-0 over Na’Vi and a 2-1 over OpTic, which is not exactly a strong resume. Gob B is still Gob B, and it’s hard to count them out of any tournament, so a lot will depend on their draws moving forward.
Smooya had a terrible tournament at IEM Chicago, which was a big contributor in their loss. They count on him in most of their setups and he’s a crucial piece in BIG’s gameplan. If he can have a big bounce back performance, BIG could be scary.
HellRaisers (+550)
This is the first LAN showing for HR with their new roster, which now includes Hobbit. Their online results have been all over the place, dropping games to Windigo and Heroic. There just aren’t a lot of data points available for this team, and I’m interested to see where they’re at. I don’t see them taking this tournament, even with the lackluster set of teams in their group.
NRG (+600)
NRG are coming off of an interesting ECS Finals. They put Liquid in the dirt with a 2-0 and almost 2-0’d North, but they lost to NiP 6-16. I would argue this showing has a lot more to do with Liquid’s underperformance than NRG playing especially well, but as always, they are going to have one of the best players in the server.
Beyond Cerq, I’ve really been enjoying watching nahtE play. This team has been looking legit over the past month or so and they are a good bet to make it out of their group.
Kinguin (+1400)
The best Polish team at the event, they just had a very confusing tournament at the Toyota Master Bangkok 2018. They were 2-0’d by pro100 and 5POWER, and then almost 2-0’d Heroic. They seem as though they can hang in any one match but are unlikely to make it out of their group.
TyLoo (+1800)
One of my favorite teams to watch in Counter Strike. Bntet is a pleasure to watch, he’s one of my favorite players in the scene. If you’re trying to learn about CS, I highly suggest watching his demos.
TyLoo recently had a strong showing at the Toyota Master Bangkok 2018, running through the group stage scorched earth style. They ended up losing the event in a close 2-3 with Heroic, with BnTeT having a relatively bad series. I wouldn’t be surprised for them to make it through to playoffs at this event.
Virtus Pro (+2000)
Not much to say here unfortunately. It’s the same old, same old for VP.
Gambit (+2100)
In the middle of a roster kerfuffle, they look unlikely to make any noise.
First Round Matchups
BIG (-223) – TyLoo (+155)
I like a small bet on TyLoo here. They play an unorthodox style of play, as the Asian scene tends to develop its own meta. They have really strong players in xcurrate and BnTeT, and they could present a problem for BIG. Although I’m sure Gob B has done his homework, they’ll need Smooya to pick it back up if they want to be competitive at this tournament.
$100 on TyLoo to win $255
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Liquid (-334) – Virtus Pro (+220)
This is a pretty clear stayaway game for me. Twistzzz’s condition makes me nervous to put any money on Liquid (Not that there’s much value there anyway), but I also definitely don’t trust Virtus Pro enough to put money on them.
It’s most likely a Liquid victory, so a small bet on them would be solid, but I’d suggest staying away.
HellRaisers (-334) – Gambit (+220)
Neither of these teams have played a game on LAN with their current rosters. HellRaisers has more continuity in the roster, just bringing in Hobbit, who is very good. Gambit is playing with a standin as well, using bondik instead of dimasick due to visa problems.
This is looking like a messy game, that likely won’t be very much fun to watch. HR should take this game pretty easily, but honestly, I have no idea what could happen. There is a lot of variance in this match, and almost no concrete info about either team. I’d stay away.
NRG (-286) – Kinguin (+195)
This is NRG’s game to lose. They have a sizable firepower advantage, better results, and a younger team. That being said, you have to bet $286 to make $100, so maybe not worth it.
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Outrights
Group A Winner
- Liquid -167
- NRG +220
- Kinguin +800
- Virtus Pro +1000
I like NRG a lot here. Liquid and NRG are likely to be the top two teams in this group. Liquid doesn’t really have an AWPer, so that presents a nice matchup for NRG. They also just met at Chicago and NRG pulled out the victory.
$100 to win $320
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Group B Winner
- BIG +135
- HellRaisers +140
- TyLoo +550
- Gambit +700
This will likely come down to whoever wins the first-round matchup between TyLoo and BIG. TyLoo is my best bet here, as I think they will squeak out a win over BIG, and then put away either HR or Gambit.
$100 to win $650
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Tournament Winner
I like BIG at +550 and NRG at +600. BIG will get a boost from the switch to best-of-three in the playoffs, which turns them into a much stronger opponent. NRG is due for a win, and I think that this tournament is shallow enough for them to pull it out.
BIG: Bet $100 to win $650
NRG: Bet $100 to win $700
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