How to Calculate Betting Value in a CS:GO Match
This is probably a question you have asked yourself a thousand times: “How can I make money?” If you are betting right now or even beginning to bet, you may or may not have answered that question just yet. That’s because you aren’t asking the right question.
Instead of just wondering how to make money through just one bet, you should instead try to find how much you will make over the long run. After all, you’re trying to make money, and if you consistently lose big and lose often, there’s no way you will reach that goal.
Now that I’ve got your attention, you’re probably wondering why you haven’t heard this before (hint: you probably have; you just never wondered how it worked). This not-so-secret method, or calculation, as you would call it, is expected value betting.
That probably rang a bell somewhere in your head, and if not, even better. This math problem may seem complicated at first. But I’m going to explain it in the most uncomplicated way possible so that even you beginners will be able to memorize this essential equation. But first, for those unconvinced, let me explain to you just why this equation is so important.
What Is Expected Value Betting?
First off, expected value betting, or EV betting, is a type of equation that calculates how much money you would make from a certain amount of money statistically. This is not just important; it is crucial if you wish to bet for a long period of time. That’s because even the best bettors in the world are not able to win every time they bet. But they have the ability to single out the best odds in each match and decide which is the best match to bet on.
Winning is important, sure, but being confident in what you are betting on, and passing on from that, being able to win for a long period of time, is even better. After all, basing your bets on calculated, mathematical risks is the turning point from being an amateur to an expert.
You want to be able to know what bets are in your favor instead of against. Never should you bet blindly without knowing your risks first. Even if this team is your favorite team, they won’t stay that way if you lose constantly with them. Research before you bet, taking a calculated approach, and you will find yourself a more accomplished and successful bettor.
Find the Best Odds First
Betting isn’t based on how many bets you can make in a single day or even if the opportunity arises. You should never try to force a bet, especially if you don’t feel right about it or if the odds are severely against you. This is because while you may know a lot about a certain aspect of the game and think that you can outsmart the odds, the fact is, bookmakers have dedicated professional oddsmakers who have a job specifically just for finding the best odds, and trying to outsmart these professionals will be in vain.
This is where compiling your own odds is crucial to finding betting value. The odds will probably be similar to what the bookmaker has posted, but there may be a tipping point to what the odds actually are and what the odds are appearing to be. Putting in the work to actually compile your own odds will be the game changer when determining which games you will win and with the advantage on your side.
Some odds may be in a different format compared to what you’re seeing, especially if you are betting on a European match or an American match. Here’s our if you’re not sure how to convert odds yet.
How to Calculate Betting Value
In the rawest form, the definition of expected value betting is the predicted value of a variable multiplied by the sum of all possible values and the probability of the instance occurring. Seems pretty confusing, right? It can be if you don’t look at the equation first.
The equation for expected value is: [ (Amount won from one bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost from one bet * probability of losing) = EV]
A positive EV indicates a positive gain or profit. Inversely, a negative EV indicates a negative gain or loss. Generally speaking, an EV is measured after a certain period of time, which means that if you are consistently reaching a positive EV on all of your bets, you should be gaining a profit over that period. The opposite goes for if you have a negative EV.
How Does This Work?
In the simplest terms, whenever the odds or the amount won differs, there is a discrepancy that can be taken advantage of. In an environment where the constants are held equal, though, the EV should remain at a neutral number, or zero.
For example, a coin flip has a 50% chance of winning or losing. The probability of winning and losing are equal. Let’s say that if the coin lands on heads, you give me a dollar, and if the coin lands on tails, I give you a dollar.
Once you plug the variables into the equation, the outcome is zero. So the equation should look like this: (1 * 0.5) – (1 * 0.5) = 0. After you plug in the variables, both of the numbers inside the parentheses should be the same. That’s because the odds are the same as well as the risk and reward.
The second discrepancy is the value discrepancy. Let’s say the odds are the same, but now if I lose, I have to give you $1.15. So the equation should look like this (1 * 0.5) – (1.15 * 0.5) = [-3.35]. This results in a negative EV, which is something you don’t want because it signals that if you continue betting on the same odds, you will eventually lose your money because no matter how much you win, you will lose more than you could gain back.
This is what the term “The house always wins” means. Because of commissions that you must pay in order to bet, the bookmaker will always gain money over time compared to the bettor. That is why you must be aware of your EV so that you can know whether you have the advantage or not.
This is why the probability discrepancy is more useful when trying to exploit the odds. Compiling your own odds is crucial when calculating EV. That’s because the bookmaker manipulates the odds in order to favor himself, but in doing so, he must change the odds to a bogus value. Once you find the real odds of the match, you are able to exploit his odds in order to gain a positive EV and be in a favorable position to win the bet.
Putting It All Together
Let’s take a look at a hypothetical scenario and say that TyLoo has -185 and Kinguin has +135. After I convert the odds, I am able to see that the implied probability for TyLoo is 64.91%, and Kinguin’s is 42.55%. You’ll see that the percentages don’t add up. That’s because bookmakers change the odds in order to give themselves the advantage.
Now, where do you come in? Let’s say you find out that the true odds are actually 48.5% for TyLoo and 51.5% for Kinguin (the true implied odds and the fake implied odds are rarely this far apart). Now instead of the EV from the bookmaker being (100 * .4255) – (100 * .6491) = [-22.36], the compiled odds are (100 * .515) – (100 * .485) = [+3].
By taking advantage of the true implied odds that you compiled yourself, you proved that betting for Kinguin would result in a positive EV and mathematically indicates a profit. This is where the EV equation is useful to a point.
EV betting has more use when you take multiple bets to figure out if you have a positive or a negative EV after all those bets. You want to have a positive EV in the end because it indicates that you are reaching a profit after all your bets are over. Having a positive or negative EV is not a reliable indicator for one bet, but rather many bets to see if you are reaching a profit. That is where the EV equation is strongest.
Conclusion
Using the expected value equation to find the betting value of a CS:GO match is tough and may take some time, but it can be a useful tool to figure out if you are losing money or gaining money after many matches. EV betting excels mathematically, but sometimes betting is not just about math. If you have the inside knowledge of a certain event going on during a match or you are confident in choosing a team to win, by all means, go ahead and bet on them. Just remember that thinking independently from what bookmakers propose is the stepping point to being a better and smarter bettor. Moreover, by compiling your own odds and using EV betting as an indicator, you, in turn, are setting yourself up for success.
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