ECS Season 6 Finals: Betting Odds and Prediction
All odds are provided from Betway, a favorite of ours.
It’s finally here, the ECS finals. Months of high quality online league play build up to this, an eight team GSL tournament in Arlington Texas. While the ultimate winner of the tournament already seems pretty clear, there’s still plenty of fun to be had, both as a gambler and a better.
Outrights
Astralis (-125)
There’s really not much to be said about Astralis at this point. They are favorites to win the tournament at -125, and that number honestly might not even be low enough. Coming off a 3-0 of Liquid at IEM Chicago they look to be in great form and good spirits, and are no doubt feeling pretty confident about their chances at the event.
These guys are just playing really, really good Counter Strike. There’s not much more to it. They’ll come back to Earth eventually I’m sure, but I can’t see that happening this weekend.
Liquid (+300)
It feels like every tournament I write the same blurb for Liquid. Perpetual number two, coming off a second place finish, can they finally take the next step and beat Astralis, yadda yadda. They’ve shown time and time again that they’re the best in NA, and they’re pretty clearly the second best team in the world. It just seems as though they can’t make that one last jump.
Honestly, it might be a little unfair to expect them to. Astralis is playing all-time great Counter Strike at this point, and I don’t even know what moves Liquid could make to gain the edge. They may just have to wait it out, as crazy as that sounds. Although who knows, this might be the tournament where they make a leap. I don’t hate them at +300 although like I said, I expect Astralis to take this tournament handily.
Mousesports (+625)
This team’s roster is a mess. I liked the Snax pick up a lot when it happened. I’m always a fan of swinging for the fences, that move could have pushed them into tier one if it had worked out. Unfortunately for everyone involved, Snax never turned back into prime Snax, and so they brought back STYKO. So now they have to see if they can revive the chemistry they had in the past year. This team is really good on paper, and I have faith in them to bring it back and contend for titles.
This may or may not be the tournament they finally turn it on again, but I like them at +625.
MIBR (+1200)
I get the feeling this tournament is going to be a big deal for MIBR. They have had this lineup for four months now and have yet to accomplish anything significant. If they continue to flounder I expect roster changes. They can swap Tarik and Stewie out before the Major without losing their Legend spot, and they would still have a month or so to practice with their new roster.
In that respect I think a last place finish would actually help this team a lot, in a roundabout sort of way. They need a wakeup call to get it together or switch it up, because the team really isn’t working the way it’s supposed to right now.
NiP(+1200)
Another team with lackluster results since a blockbuster roster move, NiP are coming into this tournament with plenty of prep time. Dennis was a marquee free agent when they signed him, and hypothetically was a pretty solid fit on this roster. Unfortunately, he has underperformed so far, and NiP has failed to make any noise.
This team is another roster shuffle candidate. They can swap out two and keep their Major spot, although they are a little trickier to fix. I’m not really sure who the best available Swedish players are, nor do I know who they should swap out. I guess Dennis, although it feels like a shame to let a player of his caliber walk. If I were them I would be attempting to rejigger this roster, maybe change the IGL.
NRG (+1200 )
I think NRG has a good chance of making it out of their group. They have one of the three best players in group B and one of the better IGLs. They picked up some solid wins at the cs_summit and this tournament could be a defining moment for them.
North (+1600)
This organization is so strange. Just weird roster move after weird roster move, until they kick their IGL and bring in cadiaN. Now, I like cadiaN as much as the next guy, but I just don’t think this is a roster that’s built for long term success. I can’t imagine there’s a chance for them to win this tournament at all, although an upset win wouldn’t shock me.
Cloud9 (+1700)
The most likely candidate to go out 0-2. Their roster is too new and too strange to make any noise at this tournament.
Matchups
Astralis (-500) vs Cloud9 (+300)
I’m going to try to make the case for Cloud9 here, and I want you to let me know if I convinced you:
- Best of one
- C9 is a (kind of) new team, maybe in their honeymoon period
- Kio is very good at Counter Strike
- These teams played earlier this month and Cloud9 lost 14-16
As crazy as it sounds, I think I’m talking myself into this one. Let me list the cons really quick:
- Astralis is one of the three best teams of all time
- Astralis are better on literally every map in the game besides their permaban
- It’s unlikely Inferno gets played again, Astralis will likely try to get Train
So, I almost talked myself into it, then I talked myself out of it. Maybe worth a small bet on Cloud9, if you’re feeling frisky. That or a stay away I think.
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Mousesports (-134) vs MIBR (-106)
I get the feeling this will be the game that decides the fate of MIBR’s current roster, and consequently their performance at the Major. You’d think this would be a pretty easy win for MIBR, facing off against a Mouz team that has gone through major roster fluctuations this year. And yet, Mouz hang in there.
I’d place a small bet on Mouz, as I think they have a more cohesive roster and their players are just straight up playing better than most of the MIBR guys.
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NRG (-112) vs NiP (-125)
NRG should have the best player in the server for this game. Cerq looked great at cs_summit 3, and NiP has been underperforming across the board really. That being said, NiP does have GeT_RiGhT and f0rest and dennis, three all-time greats. Who could pop off at any time. And take over a game. Hm.
NRG has a surprisingly large map pool advantage over NiP, which is mostly a function of NiP only really having two good maps, Train and Cache. So NiP are likely to start off on the back foot in this match pretty much no matter what. I’d say small bet on NRG, and then sit back and watch Cerq work.
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Liquid (-223) vs North (+155)
This game might actually be closer than most people might think. North is a frisky team and they’re likely to keep things interesting. They have an okay map pool matchup against Liquid, and good enough aim to stand toe to toe with most of the Liquid guys.
You can get Liquid to win the game over 26.5 rounds for +160, which I like a lot. That’s really the best value here, as -223 is not great odds.
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