CSGO Value Bets and Predictions for the Week
It’s October 30, and we have a full slate of CS:GO over the next few days. Last weekend we saw FaZe take EPICENTER in a dominating 2-0 over Na’Vi. This week, ESL Pro League hits the halfway point. Starting this weekend we have cs_summit 3 and BLAST Pro Series Copenhagen.
To help you make a little money, we’ve lined up the best bets for ESL Pro League and the second half of EPICENTER.
ESL Pro League
It’s the third week of ESL Pro League, and the teams for the finals are starting to look pretty set. The seventh spot in the European is kind of up for grabs, but it seems likely Mousesports will hold on and make it to playoffs.
The North American standings are a little closer. There are four teams within three points of each other all vying for the last ticket to LAN. I’ve pulled a couple games off the slate this week to highlight as high-value games.
NiP (+121) – FaZe (-152)
Okay, so FaZe Clan just demolished Na’Vi on their map pick (Dust II) and beat NiP 2-0 in the quarter-final. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that they haven’t been playing very well.
Their IGL situation is in flux, they have been playing poorly, and last week they dropped a game to ENCE on LAN. Do you know what FaZe’s round differential is in EPL right now? Negative one. They have the round differential of a ninth-place team and have the only negative record in the top nine. Look, FaZe just won $150,000. If you think they’re home right now, reviewing NiP demos, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
NiP hasn’t been playing like a top team lately, but they ran FaZe close enough at EPICENTER that I feel like this is a lock. Bet $100 to win $121
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Windigo (+196) – Fnatic (-250)
Fnatic and Windigo are two more teams whose records don’t match their round differential. Fnatic is 5-9, and Windigo is 3-7, but their round differentials are almost the same, -20 and -25, respectively.
Fnatic is in roster turmoil. They added Twist on October 2 and Brollan on October 17. Windigo just signed AWPer Valentin “poizon” Vasilev from BPro Gaming. Poizon has a 1.28 rating over the last three months and will hopefully add some firepower to Windigo.
Also, Windigo’s only wins have been against G2, Heroic, and AGO. Fnatic dropped a game to all of those teams. Granted, that doesn’t really mean anything, but 2.96 are solid odds for this game, so this is a lock as well. Bet $100 to win $196
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compLexity (-189) – Rogue (+150)
Rogue is currently tied in a best-of-three against Bravado, and they’re losing 1-6 on Mirage. They picked up MSL today, and their roster history on Liquipedia is longer than Game 3 of the World Series.
I wouldn’t be surprised if MSL helps Rogue but changing your IGL two days before a game is not a recipe for success. Besides Rogue’s roster revolution, compLexity is one of my favorite teams at the moment, and I think this line should be lower.
So that’s my only lock for North America this week. There’s not much value in the North American slate of games this week unless you believe in EnVyUs or INTZ, which I do not. Bet $100 to win $53
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BLAST Pro Series Copenhagen
This event already looks like an Astralis victory lap. In the last six months, they’ve had more tournament wins than most teams have top fours. In that same six months, they’ve won more tournaments than Na’Vi won rounds on Nuke in the major finals. Realistically, I would not bet against Astralis.
If you’re feeling frisky, MIBR is +600 to win the event. They’ve played Astralis pretty close in recent history, and have the best value of attending teams. Unfortunately, there’s only one bet that provides real value at this tournament. Bet $100 to win $600
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FaZe (+121) – Na’Vi (-152)
Na’Vi has had an edge in this matchup historically, but the matchups between these two teams tend to be close. FaZe defeated them in a best-of-three at EPICENTER, which is especially important because FaZe beat Na’Vi 16-3 on Na’Vi’s map pick.
This could affect Na’Vi’s vetoes in this best-of-one and hopefully provide a morale booster to FaZe. If they can focus on shutting down S1mple, FaZe has a real chance to take this game. I like those odds. It’s the bet with the best value at the tournament unless you’re really excited about MIBR or Cloud9. Bet $100 to win $120
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cs_summit 3
cs_summit is one of my favorite tournaments of the year. The selection of teams doesn’t include anyone exceptional, so the tournament seems fairly open for the taking. Unfortunately, Beyond the Summit has yet to release the first round matchups, so the most we can do is try to pick the winner.
BIG are the favorites at +325, which seems like a solid bet. These kinds of tournaments are good for tactical teams, due to the lack of crowd noise. The teams, at least in past tournaments, sit together in a room and play in complete silence. This makes it much easier to execute Gob B’s preferred pristine style of play. Bet $100 to win $325
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You can get G2 at +550 as well. That’s not terrible. I’m not a huge fan of G2, but Shox and KennyS are two of the most talented people in the tournament. It’s entirely possible for them to turn it out and dominate this group of mostly tier-two competition. Bet $100 to win $550
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My final pick is compLexity at +600. They’re my dark horse pick and might be worth a flyer. They made noise at the FACEIT Major, beating G2 and BIG handily in the New Legends stage. Stanislaw is a legitimate IGL, and ShahZam has shown that he can stand toe-to-toe with players like KennyS, although his consistency leaves a bit to be desired. Bet $100 to win $600
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Parlay of the week
How about a parlay? Just for fun. We’ll pick NiP over FaZe in EPL at +121, compLexity over Rogue in EPL at -189, and at BLAST we’ll go with Astralis over FaZe at -303. Altogether, that’s a $100 bet to win $349.
The locks for the major tournaments are pretty obvious. Unfortunately, nothing stood out to me in the ECS. I’ll let you know how my picks turned out next week.
To review, my picks are:
EPL
NiP (+121) – FaZe (-152)
Windigo (+196) – Fnatic (-250)
compLexity (-189) – Rogue (+150)
BLAST Pro
FaZe (+121) – Na’Vi (-152)
cs_summit
compLexity (+600) to win the event
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