cs_summit 3: First Round Odds and Prediction
Beyond the Summit finally announced the first-round matchups for cs_summit 3. It looks like this:
compLexity (+120) – OpTic (-167)
NRG (-286) – Ghost (+195)
Kinguin (+130) – Heroic (-182)
BIG (-182) – G2 (+130)
I’ll give my picks for the first round and the overall winner at the end, but first, let’s go over the teams.
Team (Odds to win the event)
BIG (+325)
A cs_summit favorite at, tied with NRG at +325 to take the whole thing. BIG has a strong case to win this tournament. They have one of the strongest teams, one of the longest standing rosters, and likely the best IGL at the event. Summit events tend to give these tactical teams a little something extra, as they can hear better and communicate easier. I think they have a strong shot to take the whole tournament.
It wouldn’t hurt to put some money on these guys.
NRG (+325)
NRG is the other event favorite, also at +325. They have one of the top players at the event, Cerq, their 18-year-old Bulgarian import. He’s the only player on the team with an HLTV MVP, for IEM Shanghai 2018, plus he has a 1.16 rating over 611 career maps.
He spearheads a team led by Daps, who provides enough direction to allow them to hang with the anyone at this tournament. They played well at StarSeries this month, beating North twice, but they lost in the Semifinals to Vega, 2-1.
I don’t doubt they’ll make noise at this tournament, but I don’t think they should be a favorite.
OpTiC (+450)
OpTic is a bridesmaid team. They haven’t been able to get over the hump to a first-place win. They played well at StarSeries and the GG.BET Shuffle, racking up wins over BIG, Mousesports, Renegades, EHCE, and Vitality, before finally falling short to ENCE at StarSeries and LDLC at GG.BET. OpTic smashed BIG at StarSeries, but BIG played terribly anyway. OpTic are likely to do some damage, but I’m not a fan of this +450 line.
They feel too volatile.
G2 (+550)
G2 have been one of the more dysfunctional “super teams” in recent CS history. This shouldn’t’ come as a surprise if you’re familiar with the French scene.
They’ve been struggling. At a tournament with any further Tier 1 competition, I wouldn’t feel good about their chances. Luckily for them, this tournament doesn’t have much Tier 1 competition.
Shox and KennyS are perhaps the two best players at the LAN, making G2 a dangerous team. The only players that can go toe-to-toe with them on the server are ShahZam (on a good day) and Cerq.
Unfortunately, they drew BIG for the first round, which might make it hard for G2 to make a deep run.
Heroic (+550)
Heroic has failed to make much of an impact on the scene. They’ve made several roster moves this year, replacing a third of their team. The results continue to be subpar.
This event might (however unlikely) be their chance to prove themselves as the third best Danish team. It’s unlikely they’ll meet OpTic in the bracket, which is disappointing, but watching them play should be interesting, just to see what they’re capable of.
Their odds are too low; I’d stay away.
compLexity (+600)
CompLexity was the big surprise of the Faceit Major. They had a team rating of 1.04, falling just short of BIG’s 1.05. They beat G2 and BIG to make it through the New Legends Stage undefeated, ruining many a pick’em.
I find their odds to win suspiciously low. I like the idea of an underdog taking the whole tournament.
If ShahZam is in top form and the rest of his team pulls their weight, they’ll look pretty scary.
Ghost (+1200)
Ghost is one of the more intriguing teams at this event. The last time they played a top 30 team on LAN was last August, where they lost to both Na’Vi and NiP 2-1.
Since then they have competed in online leagues and qualifiers and are working with their new lineup (Neptune joined last month).
I would assume they’ve been studying hard for this event, and Steel is likely to come out firing on all cylinders for their opening match.
Another good underdog.
Kinguin (+1600)
Kinguin’s best win over the last couple months was a 2-0 over Ence at DreamHack Open Montreal 2018. Funnily enough, Heroic failed to make it out of groups at the same tournament.
They are +1600 to win the event. That seems pretty fair. To be honest, they’re more like a retirement home for Taz than a fully-functioning Tier 2 Counter-Strike team.
Favorites
Of the four first-round matches, compLexity – OpTic is my best bet. Getting the over on CoL is solid value, but I don’t understand why their odds are so high. OpTic barely squeaked by Team Vitality and ENCE, which aren’t bad wins, but they failed to close out the tournament over LDLC.
In all honesty, there aren’t a lot of great lines for the beginning of this tournament. G2 provides some value, but I think BIG is a heavy favorite. I would stay away from that game.
Ghost at +195 isn’t terrible but trying to shut down Cerq is going to be a challenge. Most of these games are stay-aways, I wouldn’t recommend dropping major money on any of them.
Betting the outrights, however, has some value. I like G2 at +550 and compLexity at +600. Both of those teams have a legitimate chance at taking the tournament, provided their best players are in top form.
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