BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 Betting Predictions
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 is a tier 1 CS:GO event that brings together 6 teams from 3 regions: North America, South America and Europe. As the name implies, BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 will take place in Istanbul, Turkey between September 28th and September 29th. The tournament’s prize pool is $250.000 and among its main sponsors are Unibet and Twitch.
Format and participating teams
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 is going to be played in a rather interesting format and that’s mainly because of its small number of participants. The Group Stage will consist of Bo1 matches. Each team will play 1 game against every other team, so 5 games overall. In the end, the highest ranked 2 teams compete in the Grand Final.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 features 6 teams, most of which are tier 1 in terms of skill. These teams are Astralis, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Cloud9, Virtus.pro, MIBR and Space Soldiers.
Prize pool distribution
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 offers a total prize pool of $250.000, which will be divided among the 6 participants in the following way:
- 1st place: $125K
- 2nd place: $50K
- 3rd place: $25K
- 4th place: $15K
- 5th place: $10K
- 6th place: $5K
Team analysis
Astralis
Astralis is the best CS:GO team in the world and has been for the last 6 months or so. Just recently, Astralis won yet another tournament, namely the FACEIT Major: London 2018, where even the tournament’s 2nd and 3rd best teams, Natus Vincere and Team Liquid respectively, lost against it so badly in the Semifinals and Grand Final that the competition as a whole was rather unsatisfying for most viewers. Astralis seemed to be smurfing throughout the entire event and only rarely gave signs that it too might have some weaknesses or moments of inconsistent play.
In the past 6 months, Astralis won no less than 5 tournaments and played in the Grand Final of two others. That’s a level of domination we haven’t seen in a long time in CS:GO.
Going into BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018, Astralis is certainly the safest team to count on when betting and the most likely one to claim the title. There’s very little that stands in the way of this CS:GO giant and even its strongest opponents are light years behind in terms of skill.
Right now, Astralis’ win rate on pretty much every map that it plays is very high and in one case it’s off the scale. For instance, Astralis won its last 19 games on Nuke, so if it gets to play that map against some rather naive opponent who might want to challenge it on it, the likelihood of Astralis winning that game is virtually 100%. At the FACEIT Major: London 2018, both Na’Vi and Team Liquid found out the hard way that Astralis is not to be contested on that map.
Given the caliber of the other 5 teams that will compete in BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018, Astralis should have a rather easy mission. Reaching the Grand Final is practically a given and winning it would take very little effort, regardless of who the opponent will be.
Cloud9
After their great achievement back in January this year, when they won the prestigious ELEAGUE Major: Boston 2018, Cloud9 went on the decline almost immediately. Initially it struggled to maintain its top form and began playing worse and worse at LAN events. Then it lost Stewie2K and tarik. Both of them got transferred to MIBR. Their departure left a huge hole in Cloud9’s playstyle, as much of the team’s firepower had previously come from these two players.
The replacements, STYKO and Golden, struggled to meet expectations and although they improved the team’s performance to some degree, have not been able to bring it back to its peak. Quite recently, because of Fnatic’s underperformance at the last few LANs, the organization decided to transfer flusha, one of its veterans, to Cloud9. Subsequently, C9 sent STYKO back to mousesports, after a rather short period that saw him try and fail to improve his level of play within the roster.
In recent months, Cloud9 had around half a dozen average results at top tier CS:GO events, including a 9th – 12th place at ESL Pro League Season 7 Finals, a 7th – 8th place at Esports Championship Series Season 5 Finals, a 7th – 8th place at ELEAGUE CS:GO Premier 2018, a 9th 12th place at ESL One: Cologne 2018 and a 12th – 14th place at the recent FACEIT Major: London 2018.
It is still unclear just how good this new version of Cloud9 can be and it remains to be seen what the roster can do against the other competitors at BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018. In some sense, the result can be anticipated. Just look at what Fnatic did these days at ESL One: New York 2018 after going through its roster change to replace flusha. Although it brought in a very good player (ScreaM), the team simply could not match the level of execution and efficiency displayed by the other competitors, who had a more established roster.
When teams change one of their key players right before an important event, everything related to communication, strategy, tactics and so on is weakened by a significant amount. And that’s because the new player has no idea how the team plays, what his role will be relative to the tactic being used in each round and so on. So inevitably, the team’s cohesion will suffer and opponents will be able to exploit that right away. At this level of competition, a team like MIBR or NiP will eat you alive if you don’t know what you’re doing.
MIBR
After bringing in Stewie2K, tarik and later on YNk as a coach, MIBR started to play like its former self again, gradually regaining some of its previous prowess. The team’s successes at ZOTAC Cup Masters 2018 (1st place) and FACEIT Major: London 2018 (3rd – 4th place) clearly showed that things are moving in the right direction for the Brazilians.
Looking at the level of opposition they will face going into BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018, I think it’s time for FalleN and his squad to reach another Grand Final. They will almost certainly lose it, because they’ll most likely face Astralis. But it would still be a great achievement and a confidence booster for everyone in the team.
Ninjas in Pyjamas
NiP has gradually brought itself back into the game so to speak, after a fairly long period of disappointments. And I’m not just talking about high-level disappointments or not getting top placements at tier 1 events. I’m talking about not being able to even qualify for them. GeT_RiGhT’s recent reaction after finally earning a spot at a Major (prior to the FACEIT Major) showed just how much of a relief it was for him to get back to winning, or at least have the chance to.
Ninjas in Pyjamas did not qualify for the third and final stage of the FACEIT Major: London 2018. But, in spite of that disappointment, the team has arguably come a long way in recent months and is definitely a top contender at this event, along with MIBR and Astralis. Going into BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018, I expect NiP to finish either 2nd or 3rd.
Space Soldiers
Space Soldiers are now in a position to prove themselves and show everyone that their recent last place finish at FACEIT Major: London 2018 was a fluke. To some degree, people already suspect that simply because the team had to play with its coach after ngiN couldn’t make it to the event.
With its core player back, Space Soldiers is playing at full strength and could possibly score more points than people expect at this tournament. Keep in mind that BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 takes place in Turkey and Space Soldiers is a Turkish team. So the crowd will definitely be on their side. And we’ve all seen what that can lead to back in January, when Cloud9 won a Major in front of its home crowd, even though there were many other teams who were arguably much stronger than them at that event.
Virtus.pro
Virtus.pro is by far the weakest team at BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018. Its performance this year has been quite bad, which led to multiple roster changes after years of having the same 5 man lineup.
Given the circumstances, VP should not even be here. However, the withdrawal of several teams due to scheduling problems forced the organizers to quickly find replacements and invite some teams whose players have achieved some level of fame, in order to attract a larger crowd.
At the recent FACEIT Major: London 2018, VP was eliminated right away, finishing 23rd – 24th. The only reason for that was their poor performance. At this event, I expect Virtus.pro to get a similar result and finish either 5th or 6th.
Top betting predictions
MIBR vs. Cloud9
This should be a one-sided affair, as Stwie2K and tarik probably know so much about their former team that they will know exactly what to do to triumph over it. Apart from that, Cloud9’s recent roster change and MIBR’s recent improvements create a huge skill difference between these two sides. So I simply cannot see Cloud9 standing a chance here.
Betway puts the odds at 1.25 – 3.55, regarding the match as being heavily MIBR favored. And this assessment is 100% correct.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: MIBR to win.
Space Soldiers vs. Astralis
This is almost guaranteed to be a one-sided affair, simply because Astralis is too strong even for the strongest CS:GO teams in the world, let alone the weaker ones.
Betway puts the odds at 4.75 – 1.15 in favor of Astralis, assessing that almost nothing can happen to prevent the Danes from winning this match.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: Astralis to win.
Space Soldiers vs. MIBR
This could turn out to be a fairly balanced match, but MIBR should absolutely triumph in the end. The team has grown a lot under YNk’s command and the day when this former CS:GO giant is back to its former strength is drawing near.
Betway puts the odds at 3.20 – 1.30 in favor of MIBR, giving Space Soldiers a lot of respect. This is understandable but we’re still more than 90% likely to see the Brazilians win this match.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: MIBR to win.
Space Soldiers vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas
This match constitutes another excellent CS:GO betting opportunity because NiP is in great shape and Space Soldiers is given a lot of credit simply because it’s playing with its complete roster again. Based on what we’ve seen recently, NiP is a significantly stronger team and should win this match by at least 3 rounds.
Betway puts the odds at 2.75 – 1.40 in favor of NiP, assessing that the Swedes the favorites by a large margin.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: NiP to win.
MIBR vs. Virtus.pro
This will most likely be a massacre. I will be very surprised if VP manages to win more than 9 rounds against this MIBR lineup. The contrast between these two teams couldn’t be greater. MIBR is constantly improving while Virtus.pro is gradually disintegrating. The skill difference at this point is absolutely huge.
Betway puts the odds at 1.20 – 4.00, giving Virtus.pro a lot of undeserved respect and granting you the opportunity to make some easy money by betting against them.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: MIBR to win.
Virtus.pro vs. Astralis
This is arguably the best betting opportunity on this list and the easiest way to get a decent return for a match that’s almost guaranteed to end with a victory for Astralis. The chance of an upset in this case is below 2%.
BLAST Pro Series: Istanbul 2018 prediction: Astralis to win.
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