What’s wrong with Liquid?

Rarely in Counter Strike’s history has there been a team so far and above the rest as Astralis. Most eras have been defined by a small group of elites trading tournaments and playing electrifying series. Occasionally there will be a team that separates themselves from the pack, but there have only really been two or three teams to play in their own tier above the rest of the scene.

That’s not to say that that’s all that bad though. Na’Vi and North have eliminated Astralis from tournaments once each, but by and large Astralis has been nigh unbeatable. Liquid is consistently facing off against Astralis in grand final after grand final but can’t seem to get over the hump. Why? I’m going to present a couple theories as to why Astralis continues to dominate

Lineups

Take a look at the rosters for both teams, ordered roughly from their most valuable player to their least valuable player.

Is there any player you’d take on Liquid over someone on Astralis? Astralis is much deeper, has more threats, has better clutch potential. Twistzz is probably better than Magisk and Dupreeh, but not device. Liquid just find it hard to stand toe to toe with Astralis and compete on an individual level.

The AWP

Another big difference is Astralis’ usage of the AWP. Is there any player you’d feel comfortable AWPing against device on Liquid? When a team can create that sort of mismatch, it adds a lot to their game. Liquid doesn’t really have an answer to a player like device, especially when he gets hot.

Liquid has decided to build this roster essentially without a main AWPer. This works pretty well for them in most matchups, and nitr0 has turned into a viable AWPer in most matchups, but they don’t have a superstar who can nullify device when he’s on CT side.

In Game Leading

This section shouldn’t come as a surprise. It seems a little unfair to compare a top five IGL in the scene to someone who picked up the IGL role because he had to. Glaive has been a huge part in turning this team into a powerhouse and maximizing the talent of all the players on the roster. Their system is unparalleled in Counter Strike right now and I would say that Glaive is the best IGL in the game right now.

System

Like I said, Astralis’ system is the best in Counter Strike. They have the perfect balance of roles, the perfect player for each role, and a rock solid IGL that elevates their play while fragging out like a third star on a tier one team. I actually wrote about this recently, you should check it out here

Liquid, on the other hand, has a less clear roster and system in place. Their roster has been torn down and rebuilt a lot in the past two years, which means the roster is pretty uneven in terms of when guys joined. They don’t have an AWPer, their team is half Brazilian, and two of their best players fill pretty similar roles (EliGe and Twistzzz).

Map Pool

Liquid is at a pretty severe disadvantage in the pick ban stage when matching up against Astralis. Here are the two teams map distributions over the last 6 months on LAN.

Cache is one of Liquid’s best maps, with an 85% win rate on LAN in the past 6 months. Liquid doesn’t even have a chance to threaten Astralis with it, as it’s Astralis’ permaban. Astralis’ best map is Nuke, which Liquid can’t ban because they have to ban Train, as it’s their worst map by win rate. Astralis can get their best map every time these teams play, which starts Liquid off on the back foot.

What can they do?

Liquid has been in the hunt for a title at every tournament so far this year. They’re clearly close to greatness, and they just need a little push to get over this hump.

Alternatively, they could try and shuffle their roster a little bit. Grabbing a real AWPer might really help them in this matchup, especially if they can go keep pace with device. Maybe someone like Nifty, who can make big plays, especially when backed up by Twistzzz and NAF. Or they could change up their in game leading, try and find someone who can outcall Gla1ve (although I have no idea who that might be. Sean Gares?)

Overall Liquid looks pretty outclasses. Astralis is a once in a lifetime team, and it won’t be easy for Liquid to topple them. I would imagine Liquid are staring down a fair few more second place finishes.

Side

Counter Strike is a balanced game, but not an equal game. There are two sides, the terrorists and the counter terrorists, and each side has its own unique advantages and disadvantages. These are important to know as both a player and a bettor, as it can help both with live betting and with predicting how teams are going to play on specific maps depending on their style.

Objective

Counter Terrorist

Counter Terrorists are supposed to stop the bomb from being planted, or failing that, to defuse it. This is the simpler job in the game, as it’s much easier to hold space than it is to take it away. If two teams of roughly equal skill were to play a game, both teams would likely win more rounds on CT side.

There are plenty of different schools of thought on how to play each map, and the counter terrorist side in general. Some teams prefer aggressive styles of play, pushing for info and denying map control to the terrorists. Other teams prefer to hold back on site and use their utility to stop and kill the enemy as they stream into the bomb site. Sometimes teams will retake sites, where they play almost no players at all on a site, and then take the site back after the bomb goes down.

Terrorist

Terrorists have a harder job. They are responsible for taking the bomb site and getting the bomb planted, then protecting it until it explodes. They do this using their utility and teamwork, to dismantle their opponent’s setup.

Terrorists do have advantages on some maps. Cache in particular swings in the terrorist’s favor, although not nearly as heavily as something like Train swings towards the CTs. Pretty much every team in Counter Strike uses a default on their T side. A default is a predetermined set of positions that the terrorists will go to and take control over the map.

Alternatively, you can work the map slowly. Get info from around the map, expend some utility in an attempt to manipulate the CTs, and then execute onto a site. An execute is a set of utility that is thrown in a specific patter, to specific places. After their thrown, the terrorists will move out onto the site and get the bomb down.

Equipment

Counter Terrorist

Counter terrorists have a sizable disadvantage when it comes to their equipment. The M4 is generally the rifle of choice for the counter terrorist side, and for good reason. It has solid all around stats, and it has been the gold standard since 1.6. The problem is, it doesn’t one shot headshot through helmets. This puts the CTs at a pretty tremendous disadvantage at pretty much every range, as they require at the minimum one extra bullet to kill, as opposed to the AK. That’s why you’ll see CT players drop their M4 for the AK.

In a pretty major update in October of this year, Valve reduced the price of the AUG, the more expensive rifle on the CT side, down to $3150. This has been turned out to be an impactful change, as now AUGs are commonly seen at the highest levels of play. It kills on a helmet kill at closer ranges, unlike the M4, and has a scope.

Terrorist

As I said, the AK is the better rifle by far. It has the ability to “one tap” players, killing them instantly with a headshot, indifferent to their head armor. This is needed, as entering onto a site is much harder without an AK. It is a very high skill ceiling gun, and it needs to be.

Terrorists also have the Glock, which isn’t terribly effective. It is okay at spamming when at close range, but it generally falls short when taking a long-range aim duel (No pun intended).

The October update that changed the price of the AUG also changed the SG553, the scoped rifle on T side, to cost $2750. This has opened up options for the Ts and lets them use it almost like a pseudo-scout-AK hybrid.

Economy

Counter Terrorist

Another area where Counter Terrorists are at a disadvantage. The M4 and M4A1 both cost $3100, which can make full buys difficult. Luckily, they can occasionally skip out on the helmet, as the AK kills with a headshot most of the time anyway, but it can still hamstring the CT economy.

Not only is their gun more expensive, they also must buy kits. A kit halves the amount of time it takes to defuse the bomb, which is crucial when attempting a retake.

Terrorist

The main terrorist rifle is the AK, and it costs $2700 dollars. It is one of the best guns in the game, especially at its price point. There’s a reason CT’s make an effort to pick them up wherever they can.

Counter Strike is a complex game. There are lots of factors to take into account all the time, on both sides, on every map, during the buy round, while betting. Learning to understand them and keep them all in mind is crucial to success.

This was supposed to be a boring tournament. Liquid was going to come in and clean up, taking home the 80 grand without much trouble. Unfortunately for them, they had a severe underperformance at the ECS Finals, which throws the whole tournament into question. Now it seems as though the prize is up for grabs, and there are plenty of hungry tier two teams who want to take it.

Teams

Liquid (-118)

A week ago today Liquid would have been clear favorites, without a doubt in my mind. And if the ECS Finals had just been a flukey loss to an overperforming North, I would have all the confidence in the world that they would bounce back. Unfortunately, their loss at the ECS Finals has a lot to do with Twistzzz’s underperformance, which seemingly has a lot to do with health problems. That’s a big problem for Liquid, as those kinds of issues don’t usually fix themselves in under a week. It still wouldn’t be impossible for them to take the tournament, especially if NAF plays particularly well.

BIG (+550)

The (mostly) Germans are looking for redemption after a 0-2 loss to Mousesports at IEM Chicago. Their only notable wins this month are a 2-0 over Na’Vi and a 2-1 over OpTic, which is not exactly a strong resume. Gob B is still Gob B, and it’s hard to count them out of any tournament, so a lot will depend on their draws moving forward.

Smooya had a terrible tournament at IEM Chicago, which was a big contributor in their loss. They count on him in most of their setups and he’s a crucial piece in BIG’s gameplan. If he can have a big bounce back performance, BIG could be scary.

HellRaisers (+550)

This is the first LAN showing for HR with their new roster, which now includes Hobbit. Their online results have been all over the place, dropping games to Windigo and Heroic. There just aren’t a lot of data points available for this team, and I’m interested to see where they’re at. I don’t see them taking this tournament, even with the lackluster set of teams in their group.

NRG (+600)

NRG are coming off of an interesting ECS Finals. They put Liquid in the dirt with a 2-0 and almost 2-0’d North, but they lost to NiP 6-16. I would argue this showing has a lot more to do with Liquid’s underperformance than NRG playing especially well, but as always, they are going to have one of the best players in the server.

Beyond Cerq, I’ve really been enjoying watching nahtE play. This team has been looking legit over the past month or so and they are a good bet to make it out of their group.

Kinguin (+1400)

The best Polish team at the event, they just had a very confusing tournament at the Toyota Master Bangkok 2018. They were 2-0’d by pro100 and 5POWER, and then almost 2-0’d Heroic. They seem as though they can hang in any one match but are unlikely to make it out of their group.

TyLoo (+1800)

One of my favorite teams to watch in Counter Strike. Bntet is a pleasure to watch, he’s one of my favorite players in the scene. If you’re trying to learn about CS, I highly suggest watching his demos.

TyLoo recently had a strong showing at the Toyota Master Bangkok 2018, running through the group stage scorched earth style. They ended up losing the event in a close 2-3 with Heroic, with BnTeT having a relatively bad series. I wouldn’t be surprised for them to make it through to playoffs at this event.

Virtus Pro (+2000)

Not much to say here unfortunately. It’s the same old, same old for VP.

Gambit (+2100)

In the middle of a roster kerfuffle, they look unlikely to make any noise.

First Round Matchups

BIG (-223) – TyLoo (+155)

I like a small bet on TyLoo here. They play an unorthodox style of play, as the Asian scene tends to develop its own meta. They have really strong players in xcurrate and BnTeT, and they could present a problem for BIG. Although I’m sure Gob B has done his homework, they’ll need Smooya to pick it back up if they want to be competitive at this tournament.

$100 on TyLoo to win $255
Bet Now

Liquid (-334) – Virtus Pro (+220)

This is a pretty clear stayaway game for me. Twistzzz’s condition makes me nervous to put any money on Liquid (Not that there’s much value there anyway), but I also definitely don’t trust Virtus Pro enough to put money on them.

It’s most likely a Liquid victory, so a small bet on them would be solid, but I’d suggest staying away.

HellRaisers (-334) – Gambit (+220)

Neither of these teams have played a game on LAN with their current rosters. HellRaisers has more continuity in the roster, just bringing in Hobbit, who is very good. Gambit is playing with a standin as well, using bondik instead of dimasick due to visa problems.

This is looking like a messy game, that likely won’t be very much fun to watch. HR should take this game pretty easily, but honestly, I have no idea what could happen. There is a lot of variance in this match, and almost no concrete info about either team. I’d stay away.

NRG (-286) – Kinguin (+195)

This is NRG’s game to lose. They have a sizable firepower advantage, better results, and a younger team. That being said, you have to bet $286 to make $100, so maybe not worth it.
Bet Now

Outrights

Group A Winner

• Liquid -167
• NRG +220
• Kinguin +800
• Virtus Pro +1000

I like NRG a lot here. Liquid and NRG are likely to be the top two teams in this group. Liquid doesn’t really have an AWPer, so that presents a nice matchup for NRG. They also just met at Chicago and NRG pulled out the victory.

$100 to win $320
Bet Now

Group B Winner

• BIG +135
• HellRaisers +140
• TyLoo +550
• Gambit +700

This will likely come down to whoever wins the first-round matchup between TyLoo and BIG. TyLoo is my best bet here, as I think they will squeak out a win over BIG, and then put away either HR or Gambit.

$100 to win $650
Bet Now

Tournament Winner

I like BIG at +550 and NRG at +600. BIG will get a boost from the switch to best-of-three in the playoffs, which turns them into a much stronger opponent. NRG is due for a win, and I think that this tournament is shallow enough for them to pull it out.

BIG: Bet $100 to win $650

NRG: Bet $100 to win $700
Bet Now

Season 6 of the Esports Championship Series has come to a close, and believe it or not, Astralis has taken the title. (For the second time in a row no less) Beyond the predictable ending, the tournament had a couple twists and turns that made this one of the more fun watches of the last couple months. A resurgent MIBR put up a fight, and the tier two teams tussled to solidify themselves as the best of the rest. An unusually lacking Liquid was eliminated in last, mostly due to an underperformance by their young star.

Now is the time to start looking for clues as to team’s form leading up to the Major. Rosters lock January 1, so teams are running out of time to shuffle before the big event.

Team Liquid

I figured that their first-round match against North was going to close. My best bet for the match was a Liquid win with over 26.5 rounds played, and I would have been right if Liquid had managed to pull out the game. Their second match of the event was a best-of-three against NRG, which they lost 0-2. Now, a last place finish from a team that is supposedly second best in the world is not a good look, there’s no other way to put it. That being said, it may not be as bad as it seems.

Twistzz has been at least +20 at every tournament since ESL One Cologne 2018, and he’s been putting up numbers like crazy. He’s pretty clearly the best in NA, and one of the best in the world so far this year. With a resume like that, it can be easy to forget he’s only 18 years old and has only been playing in international LANs for a year or so. Having a bad event is not the end of the world. (Honestly, I think it’s silly to be worried about it at all)

What Liquid fans should be worried about is Twistzz health. Obviously I’m not a doctor, nor do I know what’s wrong, but hopefully he feels better by SuperNova Malta this upcoming weekend. We are wishing all the best for him.

Astralis

Surprise, surprise, Astralis win again. They dropped two maps total this event, both to MIBR, before winning the grand final in a close 2-0. This tournament produced some of the most exciting games of the last couple months, with the (mostly) Brazilians playing Astralis close. Unfortunately for Fallen and co., Astralis is still a juggernaut, and closed out Inferno and Overpass, albeit both at 30+ rounds.

Astralis managed to take the grand finals while dragging Magisk through, which makes the win even more impressive. Honestly, no one on Astralis had a great game, on either map, which speaks to how scary this team is. Their teamplay and their strat-book are top tier, and they can grind out wins against MIBR-caliber teams without someone on their team being +13. (Like Fallen was on Inferno)

MIBR

I’m still not sold on this team. This tournament was their first grand finals appearance with this roster, and they still just look shaky fundamentally. The biggest example of that was their A hold on Inferno, round five. Dupreeh is able to just walk up arch side and tap Tarik in the head while in a 3v5. They disassemble their CT setup and win a round they had no right to even be competing in.

They just look uncoordinated. A lot of their rounds come from big individual performances and they rarely play team-oriented Counter Strike. I’ve said this before, but this hurts me on a personal level. Fallen’s teams were always some of my favorites to watch and seeing them perform like this is tough.

I still think that a roster shakeup is the answer here. I’d love to see them go back to an all Brazilian lineup and pick up a real support player instead of making Tarik play a role that his is unfamiliar with, and clearly isn’t a fan of.

Fuck bro. So close but something is really missing. I never had this feeling on a team where I’m so helpless during our games :/ sucks but hopefully we get better. Congrats to Astralis, they played great.

— tarik (@tarik) November 26, 2018

Oh also, just as an aside, I have no problem with the now infamous “jump through smoke on the anti eco” play. Nine times out of ten you’ll get that trade, and that’s the round over. Was it the best possible play? No not really. But MIBR didn’t have banana control, and they didn’t want to let Astralis get setup in close spots with their pistols.

Also, did you see Tarik’s clutch? Cause damn. That’s probably the highlight of the year.

Mousesports

There’s not much to glean from Mousesports’ performance at this tournament. They won a (relatively) clean 2-0 over a Cloud9 team playing with a stand-in and lost close to Astralis and MIBR. They won the games they were supposed to win and lost the games they were supposed to lose.

They did manage to push Astralis a little bit, which made for a fun best-of-three. They lost Mirage 14-16 and won 13 rounds on Nuke, one of the better performances on that map from an Astralis’ opponent.

They need to get one of suNny, STYKO, or chrisJ fragging out if they want to take a step up with this lineup. I’d give them until the Major to figure it out, as this lineup is loaded with potential. If ropz continues to improve, and oskar continues to be oskar, they could easily be a top five team in the world.

North

This was a big tournament for North. I was down on them after they kicked MSL, but it appears the change has revitalized valde. He went +16 over three maps against NRG and had an ADR of 94.9, topping the server in kills. They stumbled a little absent MIBR, but that’s expected for a lineup this young.

Now that we have seen this team without MSL, it seems silly to have worried about them without him. His style clearly didn’t mesh with these players, and they’re much more comfortable playing loose with cadiaN in-game-leading.

I’d suggest keeping a close eye on these guys as they progress with this lineup. As of right now they’re a strong upset team, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they continued to improve and make waves at the Major Qualifier next month.

All odds are provided from Betway, a favorite of ours.

It’s finally here, the ECS finals. Months of high quality online league play build up to this, an eight team GSL tournament in Arlington Texas. While the ultimate winner of the tournament already seems pretty clear, there’s still plenty of fun to be had, both as a gambler and a better.

Outrights

Astralis (-125)

There’s really not much to be said about Astralis at this point. They are favorites to win the tournament at -125, and that number honestly might not even be low enough. Coming off a 3-0 of Liquid at IEM Chicago they look to be in great form and good spirits, and are no doubt feeling pretty confident about their chances at the event.

These guys are just playing really, really good Counter Strike. There’s not much more to it. They’ll come back to Earth eventually I’m sure, but I can’t see that happening this weekend.

Liquid (+300)

It feels like every tournament I write the same blurb for Liquid. Perpetual number two, coming off a second place finish, can they finally take the next step and beat Astralis, yadda yadda. They’ve shown time and time again that they’re the best in NA, and they’re pretty clearly the second best team in the world. It just seems as though they can’t make that one last jump.

Honestly, it might be a little unfair to expect them to. Astralis is playing all-time great Counter Strike at this point, and I don’t even know what moves Liquid could make to gain the edge. They may just have to wait it out, as crazy as that sounds. Although who knows, this might be the tournament where they make a leap. I don’t hate them at +300 although like I said, I expect Astralis to take this tournament handily.

Mousesports (+625)

This team’s roster is a mess. I liked the Snax pick up a lot when it happened. I’m always a fan of swinging for the fences, that move could have pushed them into tier one if it had worked out. Unfortunately for everyone involved, Snax never turned back into prime Snax, and so they brought back STYKO. So now they have to see if they can revive the chemistry they had in the past year. This team is really good on paper, and I have faith in them to bring it back and contend for titles.

This may or may not be the tournament they finally turn it on again, but I like them at +625.

MIBR (+1200)

I get the feeling this tournament is going to be a big deal for MIBR. They have had this lineup for four months now and have yet to accomplish anything significant. If they continue to flounder I expect roster changes. They can swap Tarik and Stewie out before the Major without losing their Legend spot, and they would still have a month or so to practice with their new roster.

In that respect I think a last place finish would actually help this team a lot, in a roundabout sort of way. They need a wakeup call to get it together or switch it up, because the team really isn’t working the way it’s supposed to right now.
 

NiP(+1200)

Another team with lackluster results since a blockbuster roster move, NiP are coming into this tournament with plenty of prep time. Dennis was a marquee free agent when they signed him, and hypothetically was a pretty solid fit on this roster. Unfortunately, he has underperformed so far, and NiP has failed to make any noise.

This team is another roster shuffle candidate. They can swap out two and keep their Major spot, although they are a little trickier to fix. I’m not really sure who the best available Swedish players are, nor do I know who they should swap out. I guess Dennis, although it feels like a shame to let a player of his caliber walk. If I were them I would be attempting to rejigger this roster, maybe change the IGL.
 

NRG (+1200 )

I think NRG has a good chance of making it out of their group. They have one of the three best players in group B and one of the better IGLs. They picked up some solid wins at the cs_summit and this tournament could be a defining moment for them.
 

North (+1600)

This organization is so strange. Just weird roster move after weird roster move, until they kick their IGL and bring in cadiaN. Now, I like cadiaN as much as the next guy, but I just don’t think this is a roster that’s built for long term success. I can’t imagine there’s a chance for them to win this tournament at all, although an upset win wouldn’t shock me.

Cloud9 (+1700)

The most likely candidate to go out 0-2. Their roster is too new and too strange to make any noise at this tournament.

Matchups

Astralis (-500) vs Cloud9 (+300)

I’m going to try to make the case for Cloud9 here, and I want you to let me know if I convinced you:

• Best of one
• C9 is a (kind of) new team, maybe in their honeymoon period
• Kio is very good at Counter Strike
• These teams played earlier this month and Cloud9 lost 14-16

As crazy as it sounds, I think I’m talking myself into this one. Let me list the cons really quick:

• Astralis is one of the three best teams of all time
• Astralis are better on literally every map in the game besides their permaban
• It’s unlikely Inferno gets played again, Astralis will likely try to get Train

So, I almost talked myself into it, then I talked myself out of it. Maybe worth a small bet on Cloud9, if you’re feeling frisky. That or a stay away I think.
Bet Now

Mousesports (-134) vs MIBR (-106)

I get the feeling this will be the game that decides the fate of MIBR’s current roster, and consequently their performance at the Major. You’d think this would be a pretty easy win for MIBR, facing off against a Mouz team that has gone through major roster fluctuations this year. And yet, Mouz hang in there.

I’d place a small bet on Mouz, as I think they have a more cohesive roster and their players are just straight up playing better than most of the MIBR guys.
Bet Now

NRG (-112) vs NiP (-125)

NRG should have the best player in the server for this game. Cerq looked great at cs_summit 3, and NiP has been underperforming across the board really. That being said, NiP does have GeT_RiGhT and f0rest and dennis, three all-time greats. Who could pop off at any time. And take over a game. Hm.

NRG has a surprisingly large map pool advantage over NiP, which is mostly a function of NiP only really having two good maps, Train and Cache. So NiP are likely to start off on the back foot in this match pretty much no matter what. I’d say small bet on NRG, and then sit back and watch Cerq work.
Bet Now

Liquid (-223) vs North (+155)

This game might actually be closer than most people might think. North is a frisky team and they’re likely to keep things interesting. They have an okay map pool matchup against Liquid, and good enough aim to stand toe to toe with most of the Liquid guys.

You can get Liquid to win the game over 26.5 rounds for +160, which I like a lot. That’s really the best value here, as -223 is not great odds.
Bet Now

Cloud9 recently made it official. Fabien ‘kioShiMa’ Fiey is now on Cloud9, bringing their total number of Americans down to two. (If you don’t include the coach) I was pretty excited about this pickup, mostly because of how good Kio is. I’ve really enjoyed watching him and autimatic, so I figured I’d enjoy watching this team a lot.

KioShiMa was removed from FaZe Clan for Olofmeister August 20th of last year after a lackluster showing at the PGL Major in Krakow. Kio had been a big part in FaZe’s success by facilitating for Rain and Niko and supporting in a team full of all-stars. He was one of the most important pieces in that team, and his playstyle should hypothetically let him slot into most teams with a predefined hierarchy and enable the team’s star players.

Unfortunately, those are two major things that Cloud9 lacks right now. Their roster has been in flux since March of this year, when Skadoodle retired, then unretired, then they lost their two star players and rotated through 3 IGLs ending with Golden. Needless to say they haven’t been particularly successful since bring home the Major trophy, and this roster move seems like a solid effort to turn their organization around. KioShiMa was one of the best free agents available and, whether he works on this particular roster or not, is a valuable pickup.

Flusha, kio, and tim all shine while doing pretty similar jobs. They all have rock solid aim, they’re smart players, and they play well when holding small sites and fending off enemies. All of that is important on a balanced, well-constructed team, but having so many of that kind of player might be a problem.

In earlier iterations of this roster, I was a big proponent of trying to turn autimatic into a star player. I thought he had a nice spray and could do well in a Coldzera sort of role, being put into late round situations. Instead of maximizing his talents as a rifler, autimatic has been put on the AWP. This is their only real option as there isn’t a true AWPer on the roster, and it seems as though they don’t want to run five rifles.

Cloud9 is also missing a verified star player. Flusha hasn’t been Flusha in a long time, and none of the other players on this team have showed that kind of potential. Whether Golden can turn tim or Flusha (back) into stars is yet to be seen. This team does have some solid pieces for the first time in a while which is exciting.

I’d be surprised if this roster goes unchanged for too long. It seems like another transitional step on the way towards tier one contention again. KioShiMa is a solid asset to hold and has the potential to work on most rosters, which is always a plus. All in all, I don’t have much faith in them, although I’m going to withhold judgment until I see them play at the ECS Finals this weekend.

They are a team worth keeping an eye out for, as Cloud9 is a sizable organization with money to spend and should keep getting better. I’d say they’re worth a medium sized underdog bet if you can get them at solid odds, but not someone I’m terribly excited about.

DreamHack Open Atlanta 2018 is over, and it went pretty much like we expected. ZywOo showed why he’s one of the highest touted young players in the scene, Hen1 showed up and played like a star (until the finals), Ghost and compLexity both showed up and played well enough. This wasn’t a terribly important tournament by any definition of the word, but there are certainly some things we learned that are important, and will help in any future gambling endeavors.

Luminosity Gaming

It looks as though Hen1 is solidly Luminosity’s best player. I’m not sure if this was in dispute, but this event made it pretty obvious. He put up 25-14 to clinch the best-of-three over Ghost in the semi-finals and was the best performer in the grand finals going 27-34 over two maps. The other standout was Steel, who had solid stats while in game leading. I imagine LG are coming pretty close to their ceiling at this tournament, and I can’t imagine there are many roster moves they could make to improve.

The more exciting way to frame this discussion is which of these players will end up on MIBR in the next shuffle. The current MIBR roster is not performing all that well, and I can’t imagine it’s up to Fallen or the organization’s standards. Moving back to an all Brazilian lineup would likely help their communication issues and help them iron their system back out. The problem with current MIBR is that they have a lot of role conflicts, and the problem with a roster swap is there isn’t really anyone in the Brazilian scene right now that fits in quite right.

Assuming MIBR removes Stewie and Tarik, they will need someone who enables Coldzera and someone who can play aggressively. I think Steel would be a solid addition to the roster, even though MIBR has a fully capable IGL already. The other spot, unfortunately, is harder to fill. Hen1 is the other standout from LG, but his addition carries two problems. Historically he hasn’t liked to play without Lucas1, which might be a problem. MIBR also has a glut of AWPers already, and really don’t need another. If he were to join it would likely pull a lot of resources from Fallen or Coldzera which I don’t think is the way to go.

Vitality

Luckily for Vitality they won Dreamhack Atlanta in a clean 2-0. I imagine there would have been people calling for a roster change already had they dropped the tournament, even though it was their first LAN as a team and ZywOo’s first premier LAN. Personally, I wouldn’t have been shocked if they failed to bring home the trophy, so I ended up pleasantly surprised.

The biggest takeaway from their games is obviously that ZywOo is a star in the making. He went 81-40 over three maps against compLexity, which isn’t something to sneeze at. His aim was crisp, and most importantly he played solid Counter Strike. He has great fundamentals and plays the game the way it’s meant to be played, which is what you want in a young star player. There will be time for him to learn how to make big plays and abuse his skill later. Right now, you want him to learn how to play the game right, and I have confidence that will happen while surrounded by this group of veterans.

One of the secretly good things about this tournament was how poorly RPK performed. He was the best player on Envy in 2017 and has the potential to be one of the best players on this roster. Assuming he can pick it up and return to form, this roster should be downright terrifying.

compLexity

coL did not have great individual showings at this tournament. Their T side was unusually poor and they didn’t have a single player go positive against Vitality. I imagine this is due to fatigue and lack of practice time, which isn’t likely to get any better seeing as how they’re flying to Sweden next week for DreamHack Open Winter 2018.

I could see a roster change in the future for this team as well. I honestly can’t tell if they’ve hit their ceiling as a team or not, as they’ve been moderately disappointing since the London Major. Unfortunately for them, there aren’t really any marquee free agents available in NA or even the UK. I think what they’re missing right now is a true star player, someone who can take over games for them and pull the through a best-of-three, like the one they played against Vitality. They also need someone willing to play within stanislaw’s system and take the load off him and ShahZaM. If MIBR ends up making a move, maybe they could pick up Tarik or Stewie? (I don’t know if Tarik would want to play with stan after the whole “snakeislaw” thing, but stranger things have happened)

Ghost

I had them as one of my picks to win the event, and they ended up out at 3-4th in a close best-of-three against Luminosity. Subroza was the best performer in their elimination series, going 60-51, and was the only player on the team who went positive. I don’t think there’s much to say about Ghost. I’ll still like them as an upset team in the future, but I don’t know where this team is going. I wouldn’t be surprised if team members start to get picked off for bigger NA teams and orgs, and honestly that would make the most sense. Let Steel compete in the tier-two tournaments and run a farm team, then sell of their best players to teams like compLexity and NRG and teams of that nature.

Importance of the Pick/Ban in Betting

Counter Strike is a game that’s all about advantages. Utility advantage, map control, and man advantages are all things you get in the server that give you a leg up on the opponent. The advantages don’t stop and start on the server though. Demo review and research are important when heading into a big match and can swing the outcome pretty wildly. (Look at the sgares Cloud9 lineups) One of the biggest factors that needs to be considered in CS:GO, especially when betting, is the map pool. Map pools shape best-of-threes and are a big part of what defines matchups in the professional scene.

Map Pool Size

The bigger your map pool is, the better shape you’ll be in headed into a best-of-three. That’s just obvious logic. So why doesn’t every team have a seven-map pool? Well, a seven-map pool is unnecessary first of all. Every format gives a team one ban before the match, except best-of-seven, which you almost never see in Counter Strike. And even if we did, it really wouldn’t be worth it. Top tier CS:GO teams, while they practice a lot, only have so much time to work on their maps. Between online leagues, tournaments, and living their lives, practice time can be at a premium for these guys. So, it usually makes sense to focus on just the maps that the team likes or the maps that fit their natural playstyle.

Of course, when a team is transcendently good, like Astralis, or has an especially loose playstyle, like 2015 Fnatic, they can play a lot more maps than someone like Zeus’ Gambit, just by nature of relying more on their raw skill and reacting to plays made by the opponent.

Every team approaches the game differently, which is a big part of what makes CS:GO such a unique game. Some teams play default heavy games, where they read and react to the defense and rely on picks and fast plays to take sites. Other teams play very execute heavy, practicing their bombsite takes to perfection. Which style you play really depends on your team and your IGL/coach, although the looser read based style is more popular right now. One of the biggest upsides of that playstyle is it allows you to do a lot less map-based prep. All you have to do is learn the default and some basic executes, and you’re good to go. That’s how Astralis can have a six-map pool, they play a very map agnostic brand of Counter Strike. (That, and they’re unbelievably talented)

Permabans and Best Maps

Every team in high level CS:GO has a permaban. Astralis bands Cache, Mousesports bans Overpass, Na’Vi bans Cache. They’re usually maps that the IGL hates, or that the team just isn’t good on for whatever reason. Zeus, for example, has played three games on Cache since early 2017.

Most teams will also have a map that is obviously their best. The best example of this is Astralis, who currently hold a 24-win map streak on Nuke. What’s unusual about this streak is that teams continue to let Nuke through when playing Astralis. Of course, a lot of that comes down to Astralis having a +50% win rate on all six maps that they play, but it still seems silly to let that map through.

One of the big problems up and coming teams run into is that if they’re winning on a particular map, and have some upset wins on it, teams start banning it. So, what really matters is how good a team’s second or third map is.

The maps that a team plays are assets, just like their economy or their guns or their utility. The pick/ban phase is a crucial part of a best-of-three, and understanding it is necessary when betting on CS:GO.

The Pick/Ban

In case, you’re unfamiliar, here is how the pick ban usually works. In a best-of-one, both teams take turns removing maps from the seven-map pool until a map is left over. The best-of-three pick ban is a little more complicated. Team A will remove a map, then Team B removes a map. Team A picks, Team B picks. Then, Team B removes one more, Team A removes one more. Finally, the leftover map is played as the decider. So, this generally means you are seeing each team’s second-best map, then what is roughly their third-best. Of course, this assumes no map pool overlap, which happens.

The best way to illustrate how this usually plays out, and why, I’m going to talk about the pick/ban from Liquid and Astralis’ best of three in the Grand Finals of the FACEIT London Major and show how Astralis came into the game with a serious advantage just because of the way their map pool is/was constructed.

Astralis starts out the pick/ban by banning Cache, which is their usual ban. This then leaves Liquid in a tough spot. In a perfect world they would ban Nuke here, as that has turned into Astralis’ signature map over the last six months, and they look dominant on it. Unfortunately for Liquid, they have to ban their permaban Train. Astralis then pick Nuke, which almost secures a 1-0 lead for them in the best-of-three. Liquid pick Mirage, and then ban Overpass. Astralis ended up removing Inferno with their ban, as they had lost to Liquid on it in the group stage, and Dust2 was the decider.

Inferno is both Astralis’ and Liquid’s most played map. This might have led to you believing that it would be Liquid’s first pick, especially because they won on it against Astralis in the group stage. Instead of picking Inferno, which they first pick in best-of-threes fairly often, they picked Mirage. Mirage is Liquid’s second most played map, but only Astralis’ third. It’s also the map that Astralis has the worst win rate on, at 62.5%. By picking a map that they were less comfortable on, Liquid attempted to target Astralis’ weak spot, and hope that Astralis let Inferno float and come out as the decider.

Liquid ended up losing 2-0 anyway, so it didn’t matter all that much, but it’s still an interesting wrinkle to consider when betting. It’s not just about what maps Team A plays, but about what maps Team B doesn’t.

Let’s look at another example. Astralis and Na’Vi played in the grand finals of the FACEIT Major. Their pick/ban looked like this:

Astralis starts out the veto by banning Train which, if you’ve been following along, is unusual. Astralis’ permaban is Cache, they haven’t played a LAN game on it in six months. Lucky for them, neither have Na’Vi. Astralis was able to ban Na’Vi’s best map in the first round, even though it’s a map that Astralis play and even excel on. As a matter of fact, they’re undefeated on Train over the past six months, going 5-0. Now, with their best map banned, Na’Vi are forced to ban out Cache. This let’s Astralis grab their best map in Nuke, and means Na’Vi is left to pick Overpass, their third best map statistically. By letting Cache stay in the map pool, Astralis gained a sizable advantage both by getting their best map in the best-of-three and banning out Na’Vi’s best map.

Oddly enough, sometimes your permaban can end up being an advantage as well. Let’s look at this best-of-three from ESL One Cologne 2018, between FaZe and BIG:

BIG’s permaban is Mirage, which would be a problem against a team like Astralis. Against FaZe, however, it becomes sort of an asset. Mirage is far and away FaZe’s best team, so BIG banning it first allows them to take control of the pick/ban and play on some of their better maps. Oddly enough FaZe picks Train here, even though that’s a pretty good map for BIG, but my point still stands.

It’s important to have a handle on a team’s map pool if you plan on betting on them. It’s the little things that can swing rounds, but the pick/ban phase can swings games and series.

Astralis is far and away the best team in CS:GO right now. They’ve finally transcended just being top-tier and are now ready to be enshrined as one of the five best teams of all time. Astralis has all the makings of a legendary team: crazy dominance on a niche map pick, incredible clutches, and a star player that’s among the best in the world. One thing that makes them unique, however, is that they have a perfect team composition. Their roles are well defined, and they are all some of the best in the world at what they do.

Gla1ve

Gla1ve is the perfect IGL, not just for Astralis, but for modern CS:GO. Astralis plays a relatively loose system, but they execute it with ruthless precision. There’s an argument that Zonic does a lot of the traditional IGL type duties for the team, but that’s neither here nor there. That’s the era he plays in and shouldn’t count against his legacy. Furthermore, it’s still incredibly difficult to lead a team with this level of consistency.

Not only is Gla1ve an excellent IGL, but he can frag with the best of them. He has a 1.15 K/D over 129 matches on LAN, which is very important for a modern IGL. Opposing teams can single out IGL’s that don’t frag and abuse them on CT side. Gla1ve makes sure that doesn’t happen and manages to win a fair number of clutches as well.

He’s an excellent IGL and a solid fragger with some of the best nade usage in the game. Astralis is renowned for their excellent nade usage in general, but Gla1ve especially is one of the best at flash assists and using his utility to enable his teammates.

Dev1ce

An obvious all-star, dev1ce has been a perpetual top five player for years now. He is a major part of what makes the team work, and his AWPing enables his teammates to do what they do best. His gravity on the server is undeniable, and he’s really the centerpiece of this team.

He is the perfect kind of superstar, in that he stays humble and plays within the team. He doesn’t stat pad; he doesn’t chase kills. He may be an all-time great player, but he recognizes that he is still a piece in a machine and plays his part to perfection.

There aren’t many players I would take over him, mostly because he is such a great teammate and facilitates so well for his team.

Xyp9x

Every all-time great team has a closer, and Xyp9x is one of the best. He wins clutch after clutch after clutch and is an absolutely indispensable part of this team. He gives his teammates the confidence to make plays, knowing that he’s behind them to clean up whatever mess they leave behind.

He could be a Coldzera-like star on a different team, but he chooses to stay and play his part on Astralis. Xyp9x has plenty of highlight clips for sure, but his real value lies in his reliability and dedication to the team.

Dupreeh

Dupreeh is an ideal complement to dev1ce, as he can play the raw entry, make space, and still make plays in the late game when necessary. Obviously, a player like that would be a great fit next to pretty much anyone, but still.

He’s also turned into a top-tier secondary AWPer, which opens up a lot of setups and options to Astralis. This can enable dev1ce on rounds where he wants to rifle or play a good spawn and creates an environment of flexibility for the rest of the team to thrive.

He is probably the second most versatile player on the team, after Xyp9x. Xyp9x is obviously not quite as good with the AWP, but he can affect the game in slightly more ways than dupreeh can. A transcendent number one needs a dependable number two, and that’s what dupreeh is to this team.

He would likely get a lot more shine if the team weren’t absolutely stacked with fraggers, especially when you have a player like Xyp9x, who is an absolute highlight machine. Still, dupreeh is an essential component of the team, and it would be impossible for Astralis to function as they do without him.

Magisk

Magisk finally found the place he belongs with Astralis. When he was on North, he tried to be the alpha dog, first option, hard carry and it just didn’t work all that well. Whether that’s on him not playing well enough, or not gelling well enough with MSL’s system, or not being given enough resources from his teammates, we will likely never know.

He’s really come alive on Astralis since his addition to the team and is making it pretty obvious why he’s been one of the most heralded Danish players in a while. Playing on this team has allowed him to pick his spots and frag, showing off his pristine aim.

Magisk is probably the best pistol player on the team, and he can provide the extra kick Astralis needs to push over a tough opponent or to turn around or step up when dev1ce or dupreeh aren’t performing. When someone of Magisk’s skill level is your third (fourth?) best player, you’re in really good shape.

Dreamhack Open Atlanta starts this weekend, and it should be a fun one to watch. Lots of teams we don’t see very often are coming out to compete, a couple of my favorite players are going to be competing, and hopefully, we’ll get some good games. Below I’ll take a look at my predictions for DreamHack Atlanta and showing you how to make money betting on the tournament!

All the odds mentioned in this article were pulled from Betway unless noted otherwise), which is the site we’re recommending for Non-US bettors to bet on Dreamhack Atlanta. If you live in the US we’ve got you covered too. We recommend SportsBetting.ag or BetOnline for US residents to bet on this tournament.

Opening Matchups

compLexity (-250) – Envy (+175)

This is Envy’s LAN debut, and unfortunately, they’re up against one of the better teams at the event. compLexity is two weeks removed from a close best-of-three loss to OpTic gaming and will likely come out firing on all cylinders.

Envy’s lineup has already gone through changes since their inception, despite having only played 20 games as a team. They removed SEMPHIS and have added Pollo as a stand-in, formerly from Ghost. Even beyond the changes they’ve made, their roster construction is a little haphazard. They have Nifty and JDM, both of whom have been fairly successful AWPers in NA. (This in particular pains me, as Nifty was one of my favorite players when he was on Renegades.)

So far Nifty has been rifling pretty much fulltime, although I’d keep my eye peeled for a potential double AWP setup from Envy. They haven’t looked very good online so far, having only played four games as a full team. That being said, they might be interesting on LAN. They aren’t devoid of talent and should be hungry coming into the tournament.

compLexity on the other hand look like they’re in form. Everyone is playing great, and I really haven’t been able to sing their praises enough. They haven’t played a game since the 8th of this month, which means they should show up and be ready to play. It’s a little scary to not have much info on what Envy is going to be doing, but stanislaw should be able to pull the game out without much trouble.

Ghost (+110) – Vitality (-154)

Vitality is another team making it’s LAN debut this weekend. It seems as though they’re already the best French team, given G2’s struggles and recent roster changes. They’re going to be facing off against Ghost, who are coming off a 5-6th place finish at cs_summit 3, losing to OpTic second round of the loser’s bracket.

This lineup has the potential to be top five, if everyone plays up to their level. Happy’s in game leading is a little worrying, but their combined firepower is definitely scary. This is also the first time the French have added new blood in a while, with the heralded 18-year-old ZywOo playing on his first real professional team. He has been dominant thus far through the online games they’ve played, and this will be his first outing against real talent on LAN. Honestly, I’m just really excited to watch these guys play. There’s a vacuum in the French scene right now, and they’re absolutely poised to take the top spot.

eUnited (+120) – Luminosity (-167)

This is one of the only matchups at the tournament where the teams have any sort of matchup history. Luminosity won their last matchup 2-0 at IEM Chicago, but they are pretty much even at 6-7 over their lifetime.

eUnited are another fairly young team, and the just picked up Cooper- from Swole Patrol in what turned out to be a complete disaster. FNS is leading the team, and he’s on his third team this year. eUnited haven’t had much time with this roster, and frankly I don’t like their chances against LG.

LG is a much older roster, and they beat eUnited pretty soundly last time they met. Luminosity has more talent, and really should be able to put eUnited down without much trouble.

Fragsters (-125) – Rogue (-112)

This is a really hard matchup to predict, seeing as how these teams have never played each other and there isn’t a lot of indication as to how these teams are going to play on LAN.

Bet Now

Storylines

This tournament has a lot of compelling potential matchups that I wanted to highlight. It’s really only a tier two tournament, but since we don’t see these teams all that often there’s a couple of neat little storylines.

The first-timers

Obviously the biggest thing viewers are going to be looking at is the LAN debut of Vitality. This lineup has been heralded for a while as the new “French Superteam” and they’ve been performing well online. ZywOo is one of the most talked about prospects in CS:GO right now, and it’ll be exciting to see if he can put up numbers at his first LAN. RPK is always a joy to watch, and I am personally interested to see how Happy does as the IGL. He got a lot of flak for his in-game-leading on Envy, so I want to see if he’s going to adapt and move away from the lurk heavy style he has played traditionally.

An underrated but similar story is Envy’s first LAN. I really like Nifty, and JDM, and this team isn’t too dissimilar from compLexity in their construction. They’re lacking the veteran leadership that coL has in ShaHzaM and stanislaw, but they have a lot of exciting, high upside young guys. Whether JDM can hit his ceiling again like he did on Liquid is yet to be seen, but this team could legitimately make waves in NA, and maybe internationally. (Although it may be with a slightly different roster)

Something to prove

compLexity is +400 to win this tournament, right after Vitality. This tournament is a great measuring stick to figure out how real compLexity is. They lost to OpTic at cs_summit 3, which is a respectable loss, but this is the kind of tournament you win if you are a top ten team. Vitality is still too young of a team to really be in contention to win this event, which makes compLexity the favorite, far and away. If they can’t clean this tournament up, against tier two competition, I will have serious doubts about their bid for a spot in the top 10.

Redemption

One of these players, on one of these teams, doesn’t belong. I’ll give you three guesses who it is… that’s right, it’s MSL. He went from a top 10 team to a team that’s barely top 10 in NA. It’s a herculean task that has been placed before him, but it’s time to see if he can pull this team of misfits up by their bootstraps into the top tier of NA.

He has some nice assets to work with, Hiko and Rickeh especially, although a lot will depend on the level of production he can coax out of SicK and vice, their two younger players. It is entirely possible for MSL to elevate them to coL levels of play, and it would certainly be nice to have Hiko back in the tier one scene, but it would be a long road. Seeing how this is their first LAN, that road would likely start here.

Outrights

Looking at the lines for this event, I liked what GG.bet had to offer for their outright bets so in the following section, all the odds are from gg.bet except the winner odds.

Winner

On Betway you can get Vitality favored at +300, compLexity and Luminosity are at +400, Ghost is +750. The best values here are likely coL and Ghost. I personally think coL should be the favorite here, so +400 is really good. I also think that Ghost has an outside chance to take the event. It’s likely they’ll make it out of their group, and they are one of the oldest lineups in attendance.

I would bet on Steel having prepared for the event, and they’ll be coming in trying to bounce back from cs_summit. I like them a lot for this bet, I’d put some money down on them or coL.

Win the group

All you need is two best-of-one wins to make it out of your group in winners, which is going to help upset teams and teams with smaller map pools. The first match in Group B is Ghost vs. Vitality, so whichever team wins that match is likely to make it out of their pool. Vitality is at +150 to make win their group, and Ghost is +400, so I’d suggest a bet on Ghost.

Group A’s opener is coL vs. Envy, and the second match is eUnited vs. LG. compLexity and LG are both +150 to win their group, so I would suggest a bet on coL if you want to wager on this one. I don’t think they odds are great though, so I would suggest a stay away.

Make the finals

The only really interesting bet here is Ghost at +420. compLexity and Vitality are favored by a lot, so I don’t think there’s much value there.

Bet Now