It’s been a long time coming but it finally came, karrigan has been removed from FaZe. He stopped calling for the team in after ESL One New York in late September, following a string of tournament losses starting in August of this year. It’s been obvious that he was on his way out since then, and it’s finally official. This isn’t the first time a karrigan lead team has lost faith in him. His tenure on Astralis ended in a similar way, with him being moved to the bench.

This move raises a lot of questions for FaZe. Is NiKo going to be their IGL moving forward? Will Rain get out of his slump? Is there any insight to be gleaned from the last three months of FaZe’s results?

The biggest question mark for FaZe this year was rain. He had a rough year by his standards, and he frequently looked lost on the server. Personally, I’d put that on the chaotic leadership that the team suffered through in the back half of the year, and I think rain could still be an asset on this team.

However, I don’t know if that can happen while NiKo is in game leading. Rain really seemed to flourish under Karrigan’s leadership, at least in 2017. And while karrigan does keep things loose, I would imagine that things are even looser under NiKo’s gameplan. Rain didn’t break out as a superstar on G2, in those mix lineups. He came into his own once FaZe added a real IGL, who helped him refine his game.

If FaZe continue to have NiKo IGL, I wouldn’t be surprised if rain continues to freefall. And if that does happen, he’s going to be an attractive piece to be bought out. If I had to put money on it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on Cloud9 in the next six months.

FaZe had a really weird second half of 2018. They were losing faith in karrigan, and their performance was all over the place. They won ESL One Belo Horizonte, and then went on to take 8th at four straight tournaments before moving NiKo to IGL. Whether an IGL change will be enough to bring this roster back into contention is a big question and is something that’s likely hanging over the heads of all four remaining players headed into 2019.

But what else can FaZe do? They have clearly shown a willingness to spend money, having participated in some of the highest buyouts in the history of the game. So presumably, no moves are off the table. The first thing they need to sort out, however, is their IGL situation.

IGL

There honestly aren’t a lot of immediate standouts at this spot for FaZe. They could keep rolling with NiKo, which wouldn’t surprise me. If they did, I would expect this team to look a lot like the early G2 mix teams and play looser. An additional roster change or two wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know how well Guardian and rain would perform in a NiKo led FaZe.

I could see a world where Cloud9 and FaZe swap karrigan and Golden. Maybe Ex6TenZ? Tarik? The talent pool is relatively thin right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if FaZe rode it out through the Major with NiKo calling, and then reevaluated.

AWPer

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Guardian removed from the team eventually. He had a bad 2018, and he’s getting old. Teams running without an AWPer is becoming more common, so they may just replace him with another all-star rifler. Having someone who can neutralize Device is exceedingly important, what with Astralis being the best team in the world but having an AWPer isn’t a necessity. Worst case scenario you give NiKo the AWP, which will be passable in most cases.

FaZe is an intriguing team. Their roster is in a malleable place right now, and they have a lot of nice assets. There are a fair number of moves they could make to reshape the team and push them back into contention in 2019. There isn’t a lot that would surprise me from this team, as they’re one of the better run and better funded orgs in the scene.

Rumors and reports have been circulating about the state of MIBR’s roster and their ongoing hunt for a fifth to replace tarik. Last week I wrote about some potential fifths I had seen floating around the internet (https://www.csgobetting.net/blog/what-does-the-taco-trade-mean-for-mibr/), although it seems none of those players are currently in the cards. There has been some news since my last piece, so I wanted to give an update about the state of their search.

KNG

It appears KNG was the number one target for MIBR but was vetoed by their CEO Noah Winston. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, seeing as how KNG torpedoed the previous Immortals team through his Twitter, by calling noted Counter Strike analyst Thorin a homosexual and threatening violence against FNS during Dreamhack Montreal.

I think that KNG would have been an interesting fit on this roster, and it’s a shame that he isn’t going to get a shot at tier one competition, but this isn’t terribly surprising.

kscerato

MIBR was interested in kscerato due to his playstyle being complimentary to the rest of their roster, as well as his lack of inexperience. It can be helpful to have a younger, hungrier player on a roster like MIBR’s, someone who can add a little fire to the rest of the team. Unfortunately, kscerato’s buyout was set at $200,000, which obviously makes this move a no-go.

Felps

It looks as though Felps is the most likely fifth for MIBR. In case you’ve forgotten, Felps played with this core for the majority of 2017, winning a fair few tournaments. Ultimately, he was removed from the roster and replaced with Boltz, due to the team’s underperformance at several tournaments, culminating at their 3rd-4th finish at the ELEAGUE Boston Major.

It appears the MIBR guys think Felps has evolved as a player. He has been IGLing for INTZ for the past couple months and has seemingly added new dimensions to his game. It almost feels as though he has been sent down to the minors for a couple months to develop further before being called back up to the big leagues, like in the MLB.

If Felps has really made big changes to his game, this version of MIBR might look very different from this same lineup last year. I can only guess as to what Felps’ role will be in MIBR, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being more passive than it was on the SK lineup. A change in dynamics might have been all that was needed to revitalize their 2017 lineup, and that may be what they are trying to do with this iteration.

Adding another playmaker is almost never a bad thing, if they can still fit within the roster. Having Felps as a tertiary playmaker would be a big deal for this MIBR lineup, especially if he can enable players like Cold and FalleN when he isn’t stepping up for big rounds. Felps could end up being MIBR’s Xyp9x or Magisk, which would help elevate this lineup even further.

After nine months or so of running their international roster, MIBR has finally decided to go all Brazilian once again. (Or so I would assume, they have yet to announce a fifth. I’ll get to that.) They have traded Stewie2k to Team Liquid in exchange for some old friends, coach Zews and their longtime teammate TACO.

Personally, I’ve been hoping for this change for a while. I was never a huge fan of their international roster, and I have been dreaming of an all-Brazilian, classic FalleN team. It seems as though that’s what’s coming, and they have already announced that there is another roster move in their immediate future, as they have made tarik available. The big question is, who is their fifth going to be? The way I see it, there is a pretty big choice that FalleN needs to make before they can decide on what kind of fifth they’re looking for.

Which FalleN are we going to see?

FalleN has been a fixture in tier one CSGO for three years now. His teams have consistently been contenders for tournaments since 2016, and he has been a consistent top 10 player with the MVPs to match. But he hasn’t always played the same style.

After fnx was kicked, SK brought in felps. In this lineup FalleN took a much more passive role. His stats dipped, and he tried to let fer and cold and felps carry most of the burden for the team. This worked as well, as they went on to win quite a few tournaments with felps in the lineup.

Everyone else on MIBR has solidified roles. Coldzera, fer, and TACO are all going to be playing the same style that they always play, which is good. The only variable left is what FalleN is going to do. It appears he can succeed playing either role. The question now is, which would he rather be? And can he hit that 2016 level again?

Support FalleN

This would probably be the easiest solution if MIBR wants to get the team running at full capacity quickly (which I would imagine is the case, seeing as how the Major is in a month or so). FalleN had been ceding a lot of room to his teammates over 2018, trying to fully integrate two-star players they bought from Cloud9.

If FalleN decides he wants to play a supportive role, here are some realistic options.

KNG

As of right now, this seems to be the most likely scenario. He released an apology on Twitter a few days ago, and his name has been mentioned a lot by people in the scene.

While that’s something that this core has never tried, and KNG is a very good player, I’m not sure it’s worth the opportunity cost. Adding KNG to this roster would necessitate taking the AWP away from FalleN, which would likely cripple his effectiveness. Like I said, we’ve never really seen that before, so it’s hard to imagine how it would work out. I’d imagine FalleN could still be productive as a rifler, but it would certainly limit him.

HEN1

Same problem unfortunately. HEN1 is really just a less consistent KNG, so I don’t know why they’d do this.

Speaking of HEN1 though, it does bring up an interesting point. The Immortals team that got second place at the Major double AWPed pretty much full time, and it worked well. KNG and HEN1 both got more than 50% of their kills on the AWP, which hasn’t really happened since.

The economic disadvantages of running two full time AWPers are harsh, but it’s certainly doable. Especially because besides HEN1 and KNG, there aren’t a ton of players of the caliber MIBR would need to slot them in as one of the carries.

EliGE

Did you know that EliGE speaks Portuguese? All I’m saying is, it’s possible…

Carry FalleN

This one is a little bit harder. I’ve only heard one name floating around that would make me think MIBR is considering this, but here are a couple options I’d like to see.

steel

I like steel a lot. I liked him on Liquid, I liked him on Immortals, and I’d like him on MIBR. He’s a smart, calm rifler, who could do some calling and do his job. Honestly, +steel for MIBR is my dream. He could enable FalleN to frag like he used to, he could do some secondary calling on T side if they needed him to, I think he’s the perfect fit for this roster.

kscerato

I have never seen kscerato play. He plays for Furia eSports, a tier three Brazilian team, and has only been active in the pro scene for about a year and a half. Apparently, he plays a passive style, which is what MIBR should be looking for if they want to enable FalleN to return to his prime. He has crisp aim, and I can see why MIBR would want to take a chance on a young, unproven player. Fresh blood might be what they need if they want to go toe-to-toe with Astralis.

I would think that trying to bring FalleN back would be the best game plan for MIBR, as in his prime he is one of the best players to ever touch the game. If you’re a bettor, and I imagine you are if you’re reading this, look to see who MIBR adds. If they add a star, the new addition’s performance is going to be the biggest factor in their odds. If they add a support player, look to FalleN to see if he can hit his old level. I’m sure I’ll be back to update you once MIBR selects a fifth, so stay tuned.

Liquid have been Astralis’ number one competitor for months. The two teams have met time and time again in grand finals, and Liquid has continued to fall short. With less than a month less till the Major roster lock, Liquid has made an ambitious move that could give them the edge.

Liquid traded Taco and their coach Zews for Stewie2k. Zews coached the MIBR core while they made their dominant run as Luminosity. TACO is one of the best support players of the last couple years, and a two-time Major winner. Stewie2k is a star hybrid for North America, a one-time Major winner, and a bona fide star. This is a blockbuster trade by any metric, although it still leaves a lot of unanswered questions.

The biggest problem for Liquid now is they have too many stars. Twistzz and EliGE are obviously all-star caliber players and have been for a while. But over the last couple months, NAF has taken another step up, and is just as valuable of a playmaker as EliGE. Adding Stewie to this team is going to throw off the balance on this team, and someone will have to change the way they play.

The way I see it, there are a couple of things that could happen to make this team functional, and maybe even good enough to give Astralis trouble.

Option 1: NAF takes a step back

Someone is going to have to give a little now that TACO isn’t on the team, and NAF seems to be the most likely candidate. He already acts as the tertiary playmaker for the team and has been on the AWP more often as of late. Stewie has been picking up the AWP less frequently since he’s been on MIBR, which may lead to NAF AWPing more frequently. (Although Stew may have been rifling more due to MIBR’s glut of top-tier AWPers)

NAF is one of the only players on this team who has proven he can be effective as the third or even fourth option, like he was on the OpTic team that won ELEAGUE Season 2. Even though he has hit a new level in the back half of this year, it may behoove the team for him to cede some space to Stewie.

Option 2: EliGE cedes room

This option feels a little less likely than NAF, especially with EliGE’s performance at the EPL Finals this year. But it isn’t unthinkable. EliGE hasn’t had a great year, he’s been playing worse that NAF for the most part. He plays with a little more consistency than Twistzz, but Twistzz’s high are a little higher. So, it would make sense to move EliGE down a bit in the hierarchy of this team.

The question is if he would be willing to give a little, and if he could still be effective while playing a more supportive role. EliGE has been on Liquid since 2015, and he’s been one of the marquee names since the beginning. He also isn’t known for being the most positive guy. So, I’m not sure if he would want to, or if he could.

Option 3: Twistzz moves to support

This is, I think, the least likely of the three role changes. Twistzz has blossomed this year, and he is definitely top ten in the world this year, if not top five. Switching up his role within the team while he’s playing this hot would be an interesting move (and by interesting I mean potentially catastrophic)

He may benefit from Stewie taking a central role in the team, instead of Twistzz shouldering this team like he has been this year. It’s easy to forget Twistzz is only recently 19, and he has been taking a big role in the second-best team in the world. He may thrive if he has less pressure on. Focusing on backing up his teammates and playing more in the late round, rather than being Liquid’s primary playmaker, might allow him to elevate his game even more.

Option 4: Another roster move

This certainly isn’t out of the question. This roster has been constructed a little haphazardly, and the roles don’t exactly make perfect sense. Nitr0 was never supposed to be an IGL, and now they have one too many star players. An additional trade or pickup wouldn’t surprise me, the question is who they would get and who would they drop.

They’d have to drop one or both of Nitr0 and EliGE I think. They certainly aren’t going to drop Twistzz or Stewie, and I think NAF fits this team no matter who else they get. Dropping either of those players would be tough, seeing as how EliGE is still playing pretty well, and they’ve been competitive against Astralis with this core.

Option 5: They change the way that they play

Liquid could also switch their style up. They could play even more puggy, roaming the map in small units looking for trades, trying to play off their skill. They’d look more like the Cloud9 team that won the Major.

This isn’t the worst idea, as it worked for Cloud9 at the Eleague Boston Major. The question is will it work against Astralis. My gut says no, but then again, what will work against Astralis. I also don’t know if Twistzz would thrive in a system like that. He is playing well right now, drastic changes to their playstyle may impede his development.

Is nitr0 a real IGL?

Nitr0 picked up the IGL role in 2016, after the in-game coaching ban came through from Valve. He called for a couple weeks before ceding the responsibilities to Hiko. He took the job back during stanislaw’s tenure on the team and has been IGLing ever since. Stanislaw said that nitr0 “likes to micromanage more” and that the team “(has) a bit more structure to what (they’re) doing”.

Obviously, I can’t speak to whether this is true or not. But nitr0’s IGLing skills are paramount to him staying on this roster. Whether he can call without the coach and whether his system makes sense with the players now on the team are yet to be seen.

What does this all mean?

If you are looking to evaluate this team in the coming months, which you should be if you claim to be a CS bettor, it would behoove you to watch how these role conflicts play out, and how organized they look. Figuring out which of the players step back, and who their stars are is going to tell a lot about this team and how they should be valued. I’m personally optimistic, and I think that they have the pieces to be a really good team if they can get all the roles set.

Does this put them up on Astralis? No, not likely. But it could certainly close the gap leading up to the Major. So, we’ll see.

It’s finally time for another buy/sell column. It’s getting close to Major time, so we need to asses whose stock is going up, and whose stock is going down. The EPL Finals gave us a lot of tape to watch, and revealed a lot about the tier two teams in attendance.

Buy – Best CS:GO Teams to Bet On

Liquid

Liqui’s loss to Astralis was the most successful 1-3 loss I’ve ever seen.  Liquid managed to steal a map on what was their permaban, which could have big implications in a best-of-three. Turning Train into an asset is going to help Liquid tremendously in the pick/ban stages against Astralis and will help them avoid Nuke, which clearly wasn’t working for them.

In addition to their tactical revelation, EliGE had one of the best series he’s had in a while. He had a monster performance on Train, 23-15 in 24 rounds with 102.6 ADR, and was one of Liquid’s best performers over the best-of-three. Unfortunately for Liquid this wasn’t one of Twistzz’s standout games. It appears he might be in a mini slump, after his underperformance at the ECS Finals. He played better at SuperNova Malta, but that was against a much lower level of competition, and he still wasn’t quite the budding superstar we’ve seen him be in recent times, hovering around the middle of the scoreboard.

If EliGE, NAF, and Twistzz can all finally have a strong tournament at the Major, and they can get the pick ban to go their way, they could make some serious noise against Astralis.

HellRaisers

HellRaisers are the second-best CIS team right now, and I don’t think it’s close. That is, if HellRaisers is considered a CIS team, I don’t know. Either way, they are looking like a serious up and comer, with strong young talents in woxic and ISSAA, an acclaimed IGL in ANGE1, and a veteran (even though he’s only 24) in Hobbit. They have some solid wins over the last couple months or so, beating ENCE and Renegades and taking a map off Astralis.

The thing that excites me most about HellRaisers is the roster move I think they should make. As of the first of December, AdreN is a free agent. Pairing him with Hobbit again would bring HellRaisers to another level and provide the perfect backdrop for woxic and ISSAA to take another step up. If AdreN can play like he did when Gambit won the Major, this could be a top 5 team in the word.

Mousesports

Mouz picked up a couple solid wins at the EPL Finals, and they seem to be getting back into their old, pre-Snax form (albeit slowly). They didn’t pick up any significant wins at the EPL Finals, unless you count a 2-0 over Na’Vi, but what is most encouraging about their performance is that they didn’t have any over performances from any individual players, aside from Oskar against Renegades. I would expect for this group of players to have better individual performances, so it’s refreshing both to see them hang around in games despite an underperformance and to see them playing the game the right way, whether the shots fall or not.

Renegades

Renegades had a good tournament at the EPL Finals. They trounced BIG 2-1 and put up a solid showing against Mousesports, who knocked them out at 5th-6th place. JKS had a great tournament, putting up some of the best numbers at the event. He was the top performer out of everyone attending over 12 maps, which bodes well for the Renegades. jkaem played well as well, which they’re going to need if they want to put up a fight at IEM Katowice.

I don’t know what the ceiling is for this team. I can’t imagine it’s very high, but they certainly looked impressive last weekend.

Sell – CS:GO Teams to Bet Against

BIG

After a solid performance at the FACEIT Major London, I was in on BIG. Gob B seemed to be a great IGL, smooya was playing like a top 15 player, nex looked good for the first time in a while. I thought this was going to be a team that would stick around for a while, maybe even win a couple tier two tournaments.

Instead they seem to have fallen apart. Smooya can’t seem to hit his Major level again, they aren’t playing the precise style I’d expect to see from a Gob B team, it just isn’t working. I can’t imagine this team is going to play well at the Major, unless we see smooya kick it up a notch.

CompLexity

They didn’t play at the EPL Finals but talking about BIG reminded me. coL have not followed up on their (relative) success at the Major. I was a big fan of theirs coming out of London and I was expecting them to put up results. I liked their team a lot, I like stanislaw. It feels like they should be better than they are, but they just can’t put it together. I would hope to see a roster change soon, ideally to pick up a star, although they’re in short supply nowadays.

Na’Vi

I was never super excited about Na’Vi. Yes, s1mple is pretty good, but they don’t have the depth or the consistency to regularly make finals runs in tournaments. I think that they are another team that’s primed for a roster change, although I’m not sure what they would do.

Last time they kicked Zeus he won a Major with a different team, and a worse team no less. It would seem as though the problem lies elsewhere in this team, and I don’t know where. Presumably Edward would be the one to go, we’ll see if they make a change before the Major.

North

North got 2-0’d by Shark Esports. Sell.

Last week I wrote about the Liquid-Astralis matchup, and why Astralis seems to consistently have an edge over Liquid. There were quite a few reasons, but one of the major ones is their map pools.

Astralis has had an advantage across pretty much every map in the pool. They ban Cache, which is one of the higher win percentage maps in Liquid’s pool and have an advantage on pretty much every other map in the pool. The biggest hurdle for Liquid was their permaban.

At the ESL Pro League Season 8 finals Liquid and Astralis faced off yet again in the grand finals. It was a best-of-five, most people were pretty confidant as to how the pick ban was going to go. But Liquid banned Nuke. Astralis then picked Train, Liquid picked Mirage, then Inferno, Dust2, and Overpass.

Liquid ended up winning the opening game of the best-of-five on Train. This came as a major surprise given it was their permaban just last week, but it ended up not making a difference. Astralis swept Liquid in the next three games and claimed the IEM Grand Slam.

Now, I was not terribly impressed with Liquid’s Train. It was certainly strong, especially seeing as how it was their permaban, but Astralis played uncharacteristically poor, and looked unprepared. I don’t know if this Train pick is going to be a trump card for Liquid, as Astralis is, at least in theory, a very good Train team.

Liquid doesn’t even have to play Train against Astralis for this addition to their map pool to be relevant. The threat of Train might be enough to give Liquid a little more room in the pick ban. This has added something else that Astralis must be wary of and has freed up Liquid’s first round ban to be used on Nuke.

Although, Liquid could still ban Nuke. If they think they have adequately scared Astralis with this Train pick, they might be able to leave it in the pool till the second round of bans, or even the decider. If they have dissuaded Astralis from picking Train, Liquid could ban Nuke and then first pick Mirage, and let Astralis pick whichever map from the pool they want, likely Inferno.

This addition to Liquid’s map pool could end up paying off in a major way, assuming they can win on the map consistently. It has the potential to flip the whole dynamic of this matchup and swing the balance at least a little more in their favor.

Ultimately, it’s not a game changer, so there isn’t much of a difference in how you should be betting. Although that could very well change after BLAST Pro Series Lisbon. So, make sure to keep an eye on this matchup, especially the pick bans. And look for bet makers who are going to overrate this performance, because I’m sure someone will.
Bet Now

It seems Valve finally cleared their schedule up enough to drop a new CS:GO update, the biggest in a while. It added a battle royale mode, a new case, and perhaps most importantly, the game went free to play. The update also changed how prime works and what it means.

The marquee feature of the update is the battle royale mode, which valve is calling Danger Zone. In this mode 18 players are dropped into a brand-new map and have to collect money, guns, armor, utility, melee weapons, med kits, all the things you would expect in a battle royale style game mode. Players can play solo, in duos, or in groups of three.

The game mode will likely receive some balance changes in the next month or so. The amount of ammo available seems a little low, and I imagine they’ll increase the weapon variety in the early game as well to some degree.

That all being said, Danger Zone is obviously not trying to be Fortnite. It’s a much smaller scale, it should eventually be more tactical as players start to get a better handle on it, and the number of players in game is much, much smaller. It is unlikely to be a direct competitor to Fortnite, although I can’t imagine that was really the point.

The most impactful part of this update will likely be the move to free to play. The game’s popularity dipped in the middle of this year, and Valve is trying to reclaim the public’s attention with a big update. The Danger Zone update won’t affect professional play at all, nor will it affect the balance of the game. What it will do is cause an influx of new players to enter the game, which will then cause players to return to the game to play with their friends.

This change to free to play only works with the modifications made to prime. The way it works now is you can add a phone number and level up your account to rank 21, or you can buy it on Steam for $15. Every account that had purchased the game before this update has been given prime and a loyalty badge. Valve seems to be pretty confident in their anti-cheat and in their trust factor system, as this would make cheating in CS:GO even easier. That being said, if you’re an established player your games are unlikely to decrease in quality.

I would assume this change to f2p signals an operation sometime in the next couple months. That is the best way for Valve to continue to monetize the game, through content packs and micro transactions. The game will likely operate more like Rainbow Six Siege, where content is added regularly to the game that hardcore fans will purchase, while more casual fans will continue to play the vanilla game modes.

In Counter Strike, the composition of your team is just as important as the players on it. A team composed of the top five players in the world based purely on their ability to frag likely wouldn’t be as good as someone like Astralis, who has a system and players who fit their roles to perfection. (Just look at some of the early iterations of FaZe. They had some of the most stacked rosters in CS history, and still fell short routinely until they added an IGL and a support player.)

Usually the balance of players on the roster is simple. Most CS players would want a star carry, an AWPer, and IGL, a support player, and an entry. What gets much harder to consider is the kinds of players that are going to fill those roles. A team in the upper echelon of CS will need high energy players, low energy players, veterans, younger guys, etc.

Seemingly one of the most important parts of a top tier team is a balance of experience, veteran players, and young up and comers. This philosophy shows up time and time again in the great teams throughout Counter Strike history, and it clearly works well, as you’ll see.

ENCE

The most recent (and obvious) example is ENCE. If CSGO had a ranking system for prospects, sergej would be up at the top. He’s an incredible young talent and it looks like he’s going to catapult ENCE into contention for titles in the near future, and he’s only 16.

Building your team around a 16-year-old is risky. He’s young and inexperienced, he’s going to have bad games, he’s going to make mistakes and play dumb sometimes. And that’s why you have allu on the roster. Having that veteran presence is what makes this team so good. Allu and Aerial are able to mentor sergej and back him up, in game and out of game.

Whenever sergej has a bad game his teammates are there to pick up the slack, and when he has a great game they are there to facilitate him. This roster is pretty much perfect, and I’m excited to watch them develop. I hope they keep this roster and let its run its course, because things could start to get even easier for ENCE.

Cloud9

The C9 roster that won Eleague Boston was constructed pretty similarly, albeit a little more unevenly. Their only real veteran was Skadoodle, as he was the only won to have real international LAN experience. The rest of their team was young, tarik and Stewie2k especially.

This showed in the way that they played, both because their best players were young and because tarik was IGLing. They played fast and loose, relying on their aim and pushing for big individual plays. They played around smokes and applied pressure to FaZe in the grand finals, forcing them into uncomfortable spots.

If you subscribe to the theory of the importance of veterancy, like I do, it won’t surprise you who top fragged in the Major finals. Skadoodle came through in the biggest spot and put up 79 frags over three maps, winning the Major MVP.

The experience becomes exponentially more important as the stage gets bigger, in large part due to how different playing at a LAN like that is. Veteran players are better at handling the crowd, the spotlight, the big moment than they younger players are. They can act as a steadying voice in events like that and are often instrumental in big event wins.

Gambit

The Zeus-led iteration of this team is the inverse of the Cloud9 team I just talked about. Every player on Gambit had been active since before 2009, except for Hobbit. I think this worked especially well due to Zeus’ style of in-game-leading. He was surrounded by veterans who knew how to execute to perfection, and play smart CS. He wielded the veterans like a surgeon wields a scalpel and they played their game phenomenally well.

When it came time for the decider game in the Major final, Hobbit stepped up in a huge way. He went 26-14 over 26 rounds and outfragged every other player on the server. This is another place where young players who can frag can make a huge difference. They can be the sparkplug that a veteran team needs to add a push, win a couple crazy rounds off of their raw aim, and take over the game. Young players tend to roll really well and work off of their momentum in a way that some veterans can’t. A big game from a rookie is likely to be a very, very big game, and that’s what Gambit got out of Hobbit when they needed him most.

Liquid

This current Liquid roster is doing this well, although it may not look like it. Liquid doesn’t have a player over 23 years old, but they still have a heavy veteran presence to help out Twistzz. EliGE, and nitr0 have both been on Liquid for years, and TACO has won two Majors. While all five players are grouped pretty closely in age, especially compared to some of the other rosters I’ve talked about, there is still a pretty obvious support system in place for Twistzz to learn and thrive in.

NRG

This roster is also deceptive. They have great young guys, nahtE, brehze, and CeRq. And they have daps, who is their IGL, has been active since 2012 and is 25 years old. So, you’d think they’d be set. But daps hasn’t actually had a ton of top tier experience. This NRG team is pretty solidly the best team he’s ever been on, and so he is being put into unfamiliar spots, just like the young guys. If a roster change was considered, which I don’t really think it should be, they should look to adding someone who has international LAN experience to help out the young guns.

Mousesports

This team is very ENCE-esque. They have a similar old AWPer, oskar, and a young star, ropz. Oskar, along with ChrisJ, create a solid base for the rest of the team to build on, providing consistency and stability.

What makes this team unique is their construction beyond that. Oskar is their main AWPer, which usually isn’t the role of the oldest player, whereas ropz is a more passive, site holding type of player, like you usually see from a veteran. This combination adds a lot of firepower to this team, that makes them especially scary.

Team composition is not even close to an exact science. It isn’t necessary to have a mix of veterans and rookies by any means, and plenty of teams succeed without following this philosophy. Still, this is something to consider when evaluating teams. Thinking about the player’s roles, in game and out of game, is a great way to get an edge when betting.

DreamHack Open Winter is over, and boy was it weird. Underperformances, overperformances, upsets, all sorts of fun stuff happened over the weekend. ENCE took another step forward to being a legitimate team on the world stage, and G2 looked just like the old G2 we all know and love.

ENCE

ENCE is looking like a contender. This is their second tournament win since October, and they have racked up some impressive wins over teams like BIG, OpTic, G2, and Mousesports. ENCE aren’t competing again until the Minor qualifier next week, and I expect them to make waves, both at the qualifier and at the Minor itself.

Tier two isn’t out of ENCE’s reach at this point. You could make an argument that they are already there, but I don’t think they have the results to be put into the tier under Astralis and Liquid and the like. Their best win is probably a 2-1 over BIG at StarSeries, which just isn’t enough to justify putting them into the same tier as MIBR, FaZe, NRG, etc.

Sergej is starting to look like a bona fide superstar as well. He went 60-55 over three maps against OpTic at this event and had 26 kills and 18 deaths over 27 rounds on Train. He is clearly thriving in this situation, surrounded by fellow Finns with more experience. He can lean on players like allu and Aerial to find support in game when he isn’t playing hot and is assuredly learning a lot from them outside the game as well. That kind of veterancy can be underrated and is often crucial to the development of a younger player.

G2

This was G2’s first event with Lucky and JaCkz, and it didn’t inspire a lot of early confidence in this lineup. In fact, it starkly contrasts the debut of another French team, also at a Dreamhack event, that happened last month. Vitality arrived at Atlanta with vengeance and showed what their young talent could do, taking the tournament without much stress. G2, on the other hand, squeaked out a win over ENCE, with the smallest margin possible, before going out of their group 1-2.

It may seem like it’s a little reactionary to write this team off, but I really do not like this core. They made the wrong roster move, and I don’t see how this team can succeed while it continues to be “Shox’s team”. They kicked their IGL, who is one of the only actual IGLs in the French scene, to play Shox’s “loose” style of play. I can’t see this benefiting anyone, especially not KennyS.

I can’t imagine much is going to go right for this G2 team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another roster change in the coming months, probably after the Major. Although, at this point, I don’t think there’s any way forward besides blowing it up.

OpTic

This roster is pretty disappointing for the names it has on it. They have cajunb and k0nfig, you’d think they’d be able to win something, right? Apparently not. They have had a string of second placings and overall questionable results, and couldn’t pull out this tournament, even though they were one of the favorites coming in.

This is what happens when you build your roster piecemeal. Their roster construction doesn’t really make much sense, and it’s not hard to see why. Originally, they were a mixed nationality team, with stanislaw and ShahZam on the roster. After they were removed, they added JUGi and Snappi from Heroic, which didn’t push them over the edge. Then they picked up niko.

This roster has potential, they just lack direction. Unfortunately, I don’t know if there are any moves to make. An IGL change might be prudent here, but the pool of candidates is pretty slim. They could try to poach MSL from Rogue, although I don’t know if running back the whole “MSL-k0nfig-cajunb” thing is viable, or if those three players would want to play again.

compLexity

It was a rough tournament for compLexity. They went out of groups 1-2, falling to x6tence Galaxy 0-2 in the decider match. They have been underperforming since their placement at the Major, and it’s starting to look like the ShahZam show. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but they need at least one other guy to step up.

ShahZam and stanislaw are pretty routinely the best performing guys on the team, which isn’t a recipe for long term success.

What they need is a superstar caliber player who can win clutches, take over games, and push them over the edge to securely be a tier two team. The problem is, who are they going to kick and who is available?

I wouldn’t be surprised if compLexity adds som to their lineup. Som hasn’t expressed interest in playing on a legitimate professional team, but I think it would be a good fit. He is the type of player that they need to add, and he could benefit greatly from playing with this team. Stan is the kind of player you’d want to coach up a player like som, and he’s already signed to compLexity (albeit as a streamer).

LDLC

Another team that is underperforming their breakout performance, LDLC went out 0-2. This is a team I wouldn’t be surprised to see get picked apart by G2 and Vitality, in event of a roster shuffle in France. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see ScreaM end up on this team. I do not have high hopes for LDLC going forward, although they’re always a pleasure to watch.

Bravado

The biggest surprise of the event, no doubt, was Bravado’s 2-0 advancement through their group. Not only that, but they didn’t drop a map until grand finals, where they lost 0-2 to ENCE.

Bravado has mostly been grinding online qualifiers for the past year or so, since they moved from South Africa to NA. DreamHack was their second LAN since moving to NA, and they certainly showed out.

Liquid has finally won a tournament. It took them eight months with this roster, but they finally did it. That’s easily the headlining story at this tournament, although plenty else happened. This was a tournament that had a pretty clear dividing line between the top four and the bottom four, and it shows in the results. It’s always fun to see teams like TYLOO and Kinguin on LAN, although they rarely amount to much. For the most part though, things proceeded about how one would expect, and the tournament ended up being a fun watch. Especially Liquid on that comeback in grand finals, which we don’t see often from them.

BIG

BIG has been unimpressive for a while now. Since their second place at Cologne this year they haven’t placed higher than third at LAN and continue to drop series to teams they have no business dropping series to. Hellraisers, OpTic, and ENCE are all teams that they have lost to in the past couple months, which does not bode well for their status as a (borderline) contender.

On the bright side, tabseN had a great tournament. This team still has all the pieces they need to put up results, and I would be worried to face off against them at a Major. Gob B is one of the best IGLs in the scene which means BIG is a monster when given adequate prep time.
All in all, this tournament wasn’t terrible for BIG. They got unlucky and drew Liquid in the semis and played them fairly close. While BIG has had some rough tournaments since the Major, I expect them to have a strong showing in Katowice.

HellRaisers

This team looked good for this being their first tournament with this lineup. woxic is very, very good at Counter Strike (I don’t know if you knew). ANGE1 seems to be doing a good job holding the team together, and Hobbit is especially useful for the veteran presence that players like woxic need.

That being said, they didn’t play many maps, and didn’t beat anyone notable. They beat Gambit, who was playing with a standin, and then beat TYLOO 2-1. In the semis they bombed out against NRG 0-2 without reaching double digits on either map.

I think that HR is going to make a run at Adren. He could make this team scary, and I don’t really see anywhere else for him to go (Unless Na’Vi makes a roster change). He could elevate this team a lot, providing that second kick right behind woxic and really pulling the whole thing together.

HellRaisers will likely continue to look better and better, and will likely make the Major, especially due to the lack of depth in the CIS Minor.

Liquid

Liquid finally won a tournament with this roster. They beat NRG in the grand finals convincingly, mounting an impressive comeback on Inferno to take the map 16-14.

This win likely means a lot to Liquid. Not having won a tournament of any kind since adding Taco was no doubt something that weighed on them. Now that they’ve proven they can do it, it might add a little morale boost in their next matchup with Astralis.

NAF performed exceptionally well at this tournament, outperforming EliGE and Twistzz. NAF went +53 over eight maps and was instrumental in their comeback on Inferno. He had an ADR of 81.6 and died 11 times in 30 rounds. Also, he was AWPing. I don’t know if that is something that he is going to continue to do, but that could actually be a big help in their matchups against Astralis. Having someone else who can pick up the AWP and help shutdown bombsites and look for picks could be big for Liquid.

NRG

NRG seems to have taken the “little brother of NA” spot away from Cloud9, seeing as how Cloud9 isn’t really an American team anymore. And so, as is tradition for the little brother team, they got smashed in the grand finals.

This team still feels young, and I’m not sure I trust daps as IGL. NRG’s CT side fell apart on Overpass, and they couldn’t close the game out on CT side even with a nine-round advantage. This kind of defeat is the kind you’d expect from a young team, so it’s not terribly worrying, but it does seem to me like this team could benefit from a veteran presence.

That all being said, a roster change doesn’t feel necessary. They should ride this lineup out and really see what they can do, especially because CeRq and nahtE are so young. I see no reason for this roster to stop improving, and I look forward to watching them play. Hopefully they make some waves at the Major.

TYLOO

I was hopeful for TYLOO at this tournament. I predicted them to beat BIG, which they did by the slimmest possible margin, and then they proceeded to lay an egg against HellRaisers and BIG. I would anticipate a roster change from TYLOO in the immediate future. BnTeT is way too good to be playing on a team like this, so they’ll either build around him or he will get poached. I don’t know if he speaks any English, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on an international mix team or on an NA team sometime in the future.

Kinguin

This team is so weird. They push NRG to overtime and lose. Then they play VP in the elimination match and push them top overtime as well. Then, they lose 4-16. It’s not even like Mirage is that bad of a map for Kinguin, it’s middle of the road for this lineup.

They had a chance to prove that they are the best Polish team (Which doesn’t seem like an incredible feat anymore really), and they blew it. I honestly can’t tell if this team is just TaZ’s retirement tour or if they’re actively trying to push the roster, but at this point I don’t think it matters.